Courmayeur: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Isabella Maria Serban

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Lucrezia Stefanini (67%) · Lucrezia Stefanini at 96¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 3

Lucrezia Stefanini96¢Isabella Maria Serban4¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lucrezia Stefanini

Consensus Traders

Lucrezia Stefanini 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.3K

Combined PnL

-$512.17

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 95.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLucrezia Stefanini at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lucrezia Stefanini

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Lucrezia Stefanini96%

Isabella Maria Serban5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lucrezia Stefanini8 traders

Total Value$39.1K

Total Shares45,886

Combined PnL-$650.69

Isabella Maria Serban4 traders

Total Value$177.39

Total Shares348

Combined PnL+$138.52

Lucrezia Stefanini — 67%Isabella Maria Serban — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 84.5¢	$24.1K	$27.0K	+$2.9K	59% 44235-30607 (74842)
HO HomeRunHazard	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 90.1¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$88.49	54% 16729-14037 (30766)
RN1	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 85¢	$4.1K	$2.3K	$-1.7K	54% 55310-47345 (102655)
ST stepanka1234	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 88.7¢	$3.2K	$1.8K	$-1.4K	76% 26-8 (34)
TH thestingsnake	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 88.7¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$68.58	60% 3883-2640 (6523)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 85¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$11.95	52% 13465-12320 (25785)
IL Illiasca	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 92¢	$1,000	$532.61	-$467.39	65% 240-130 (370)
1L 1lovejump	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 87.1¢	$385.1	$328.6	-$29.49	53% 569-512 (1081)
VeryLucky888CTR	Isabella Maria Serbanavg 11.1¢	$24.18	$111.27	+$87.09	58% 40367-29157 (69524)
EF efntrickARB<$100	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 83¢	$47.7	$57.75	+$10.05	48% 3603-3858 (7461)
└ Isabella Maria Serban leg	Isabella Maria Serbanavg 14.8¢	$10.35	$35.7	+$25.35
└ Lucrezia Stefanini leg	Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 83¢	$37.35	$22.05	-$15.3
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Isabella Maria Serbanavg 11¢	$8.8	$40.8	+$32	56% 6835-5475 (12310)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Isabella Maria Serbanavg 11¢	$3.89	$18.02	+$14.13	62% 13573-8398 (21971)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Isabella Maria Serbanavg 14¢	$2	$7.3	+$5.29	52% 5807-5432 (11239)

UpTheBlues

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$24,116.22

Value

$27.0K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

59%

44235-30607 (74842)

HomeRunHazard

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$3,751.82

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$88.49

Record

54%

16729-14037 (30766)

RN1

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$4,057.13

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

55310-47345 (102655)

stepanka1234

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$3,233.56

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

76%

26-8 (34)

thestingsnake

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$1,596.8

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$68.58

Record

60%

3883-2640 (6523)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$1,644.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$11.95

Record

52%

13465-12320 (25785)

Illiasca

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$1,000

Value

$532.61

PnL

-$467.39

Record

65%

240-130 (370)

1lovejump

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$385.1

Value

$328.6

PnL

-$29.49

Record

53%

569-512 (1081)

VeryLucky888CTR

Isabella Maria Serban

Invested

$24.18

Value

$111.27

PnL

+$87.09

Record

58%

40367-29157 (69524)

efntrickARB<$100

Lucrezia Stefanini

Invested

$47.7

Value

$57.75

PnL

+$10.05

Record

48%

3603-3858 (7461)

Both legs:

Isabella Maria Serban$10.3514.8¢+$25.35

Lucrezia Stefanini$37.3583¢-$15.3

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Isabella Maria Serban

Invested

$8.8

Value

$40.8

PnL

+$32

Record

56%

6835-5475 (12310)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Isabella Maria Serban

Invested

$3.89

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$14.13

Record

62%

13573-8398 (21971)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Isabella Maria Serban

Invested

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$5.29

Record

52%

5807-5432 (11239)

Research grade

NeutralLucrezia Stefanini at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Lucrezia Stefanini

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lucrezia Stefanini wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.