Courmayeur: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Ayla Aksu
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Lucrezia Stefanini (43%) · Lucrezia Stefanini at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Lucrezia Stefanini
7
Lucrezia Stefanini 43%
$1.3K
-$0.1
69.8¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLucrezia Stefanini at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IL Illiasca | Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 70¢ | $800 | $794.29 | -$5.71 | 66% 259-135 (394) |
 RN1CTR | Ayla Aksuavg 30¢ | $222.86 | $226.58 | +$3.71 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 VeryLucky888 | Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 69¢ | $162.86 | $164.04 | +$1.18 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Lucrezia Stefaniniavg 69¢ | $50.37 | $50.74 | +$0.36 | 56% 6917-5536 (12453) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Ayla Aksuavg 31¢ | $32.55 | $32.03 | -$0.52 | 52% 5884-5521 (11405) |
1L 1lovejumpCTR<$100 | Ayla Aksuavg 29¢ | $10.04 | $10.81 | +$0.76 | 54% 634-551 (1185) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Ayla Aksuavg 30¢ | $7.21 | $7.33 | +$0.12 | 62% 13617-8456 (22073) |
Invested
$800
Value
$794.29
PnL
-$5.71
Record
66%
259-135 (394)
RN1CTRInvested
$222.86
Value
$226.58
PnL
+$3.71
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
VeryLucky888Invested
$162.86
Value
$164.04
PnL
+$1.18
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$50.37
Value
$50.74
PnL
+$0.36
Record
56%
6917-5536 (12453)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$32.55
Value
$32.03
PnL
-$0.52
Record
52%
5884-5521 (11405)
Invested
$10.04
Value
$10.81
PnL
+$0.76
Record
54%
634-551 (1185)
Invested
$7.21
Value
$7.33
PnL
+$0.12
Record
62%
13617-8456 (22073)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.