Guangzhou Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Lanlana Tararudee

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Katerina Siniakova (67%) · Katerina Siniakova at 67¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3

Katerina Siniakova67¢Lanlana Tararudee33¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Katerina Siniakova

Consensus Traders

Katerina Siniakova 67%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$7.36

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 66.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKaterina Siniakova at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Katerina Siniakova

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Katerina Siniakova67%

Lanlana Tararudee34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Katerina Siniakova4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,174

Combined PnL-$56.78

Lanlana Tararudee2 traders

Total Value$463.85

Total Shares1,325

Combined PnL+$49.42

Katerina Siniakova — 67%Lanlana Tararudee — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Katerina Siniakova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKaterina Siniakova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKaterina Siniakova 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKaterina Siniakova 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Katerina Siniakova 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470	Katerina Siniakovaavg 68.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$80.81	72% 343-136 (479)
RollAwayTheDew	Katerina Siniakovaavg 62.3¢	$574.9	$599.95	+$20.44	53% 301-270 (571)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Lanlana Tararudeeavg 31¢	$310	$350	+$45	47% 2383-2656 (5039)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Lanlana Tararudeeavg 33.6¢	$109.44	$113.85	+$4.42	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
VeryLucky888	Katerina Siniakovaavg 64.8¢	$308.29	$85.7	+$3.59	58% 40527-29300 (69827)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Katerina Siniakovaavg 65¢	$24.7	$24.7	+$0	58% 18334-13463 (31797)

0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470

Katerina Siniakova

Invested

$1,423.35

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$80.81

Record

72%

343-136 (479)

RollAwayTheDew

Katerina Siniakova

Invested

$574.9

Value

$599.95

PnL

+$20.44

Record

53%

301-270 (571)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Lanlana Tararudee

Invested

$310

Value

$350

PnL

+$45

Record

47%

2383-2656 (5039)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Lanlana Tararudee

Invested

$109.44

Value

$113.85

PnL

+$4.42

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

VeryLucky888

Katerina Siniakova

Invested

$308.29

Value

$85.7

PnL

+$3.59

Record

58%

40527-29300 (69827)

BillBenter2026<$100

Katerina Siniakova

Invested

$24.7

Value

$24.7

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

18334-13463 (31797)

Research grade

NeutralKaterina Siniakova at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Katerina Siniakova

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

61h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Katerina Siniakova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKaterina Siniakova 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKaterina Siniakova 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKaterina Siniakova 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Katerina Siniakova 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Katerina Siniakova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.