Curitiba: Nauhany Leme Da Silva vs Alice Tubello
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alice Tubello (78%) · Alice Tubello at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Alice Tubello
9
Alice Tubello 78%
$4.0K
$117.45
78.8¢ → 100¢
+27% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralAlice Tubello at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Alice Tubelloavg 90.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$70.25 | 59% 45819-32178 (77997) |
 VeryLucky888 | Alice Tubelloavg 65.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$13.31 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Alice Tubelloavg 91¢ | $634.02 | $644.34 | +$10.32 | 52% 13790-12592 (26382) |
1L 1lovejump | Alice Tubelloavg 79.3¢ | $1.0K | $540.93 | +$25.88 | 53% 665-587 (1252) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 33¢ | $115.3 | $117.05 | +$1.75 | 62% 13708-8572 (22280) |
 RN1<$100 | Alice Tubelloavg 98.1¢ | $51.63 | $52.61 | +$0.97 | 54% 56611-48781 (105392) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Alice Tubelloavg 85¢ | $15.81 | $12.37 | -$3.44 | 67% 23336-11741 (35077) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Alice Tubelloavg 66¢ | $6.59 | $6.64 | +$0.05 | 48% 2396-2627 (5023) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 0.7¢ | $1.77 | $0.13 | -$1.64 | 59% 10191-7178 (17369) |
Invested
$1,268.29
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$70.25
Record
59%
45819-32178 (77997)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,241.65
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.31
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$634.02
Value
$644.34
PnL
+$10.32
Record
52%
13790-12592 (26382)
Invested
$1,014.2
Value
$540.93
PnL
+$25.88
Record
53%
665-587 (1252)
Invested
$115.3
Value
$117.05
PnL
+$1.75
Record
62%
13708-8572 (22280)
RN1<$100Invested
$51.63
Value
$52.61
PnL
+$0.97
Record
54%
56611-48781 (105392)
Invested
$15.81
Value
$12.37
PnL
-$3.44
Record
67%
23336-11741 (35077)
Invested
$6.59
Value
$6.64
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
2396-2627 (5023)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$1.77
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$1.64
Record
59%
10191-7178 (17369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Alice Tubello — $1.3K
VeryLucky888
Alice Tubello — $1.3K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Alice Tubello — $644.34
1lovejump
Alice Tubello — $540.93
Lilybaeum
CTRNauhany Leme Da Silva — $117.05
RN1
Alice Tubello — $52.61
pauleta23
Alice Tubello — $12.37
ameisgoat11
Alice Tubello — $6.64
poshposh
CTRNauhany Leme Da Silva — $0.13