Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Luisina Giovannini, while the market favors Nauhany Leme Da Silva (73%). 6 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Curitiba: Nauhany Leme Da Silva vs Luisina Giovannini

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Luisina Giovannini (46%) · Luisina Giovannini at 28¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 4

Nauhany Leme Da Silva73¢Luisina Giovannini27¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Luisina Giovannini

Consensus Traders

Luisina Giovannini 46%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.1K

Combined PnL

$573.59

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 27.5¢

-47% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidLuisina Giovannini at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luisina Giovannini

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Nauhany Leme Da Silva 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nauhany Leme Da Silva73%

Luisina Giovannini28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nauhany Leme Da Silva7 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,867

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Luisina Giovannini6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,939

Combined PnL-$946.62

Nauhany Leme Da Silva — 54%Luisina Giovannini — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 35¢	$3.8K	$5.6K	+$1.8K	59% 44657-31054 (75711)
RN1ARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 63¢	$8.8K	$5.1K	$-3.7K	54% 55758-47850 (103608)
└ Nauhany Leme Da Silva leg	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 77.8¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$114.64
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 63¢	$5.5K	$1.7K	$-3.8K
HO HomeRunHazard	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 60¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$265.7	54% 16879-14148 (31027)
IL IlliascaCTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 60.9¢	$950	$1.1K	+$126.15	66% 260-136 (396)
MR MrDoucheCTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 40¢	$800	$830	+$30	83% 1684-355 (2039)
tradecraftCTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 63.8¢	$1.4K	$610.92	-$785.68	52% 5886-5524 (11410)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 44.9¢	$346	$313.75	-$32.25	51% 1295-1231 (2526)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 71.3¢	$422.44	$282.63	-$139.8	52% 13577-12420 (25997)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 46.5¢	$446.17	$269.48	-$11.01	54% 639-555 (1194)
└ Nauhany Leme Da Silva leg	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 39.4¢	$87.59	$168	+$103.22
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 46.5¢	$192.64	$101.48	-$114.24
88MCTR	Luisina Giovanniniavg 30.5¢	$631.89	$269.01	-$145.04	42% 773-1074 (1847)
BI BillBenter2026	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 70.2¢	$128.24	$143.93	+$15.69	58% 18426-13514 (31940)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 32¢	$46.37	$45.41	-$0.96	49% 18637-19066 (37703)
PA pauleta23<$100	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 50¢	$10	$6.2	-$3.8	67% 23119-11523 (34642)
HRTrading<$100	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 33¢	$3.96	$3.72	-$0.24	53% 3109-2775 (5884)
TRCM<$100	Nauhany Leme Da Silvaavg 60¢	$3	$3.2	+$0.2	55% 3919-3151 (7070)

UpTheBlues

Nauhany Leme Da Silva

Invested

$3,840.02

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

44657-31054 (75711)

RN1ARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$8,821.59

Value

$5.1K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

54%

55758-47850 (103608)

Both legs:

Nauhany Leme Da Silva$3,324.9877.8¢+$114.64

Luisina Giovannini$5,496.663¢$-3.8K

HomeRunHazard

Nauhany Leme Da Silva

Invested

$2,734.43

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$265.7

Record

54%

16879-14148 (31027)

IlliascaCTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$950

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$126.15

Record

66%

260-136 (396)

MrDoucheCTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$800

Value

$830

PnL

+$30

Record

83%

1684-355 (2039)

tradecraftCTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$1,396.6

Value

$610.92

PnL

-$785.68

Record

52%

5886-5524 (11410)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$346

Value

$313.75

PnL

-$32.25

Record

51%

1295-1231 (2526)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$422.44

Value

$282.63

PnL

-$139.8

Record

52%

13577-12420 (25997)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$446.17

Value

$269.48

PnL

-$11.01

Record

54%

639-555 (1194)

Both legs:

Nauhany Leme Da Silva$87.5939.4¢+$103.22

Luisina Giovannini$192.6446.5¢-$114.24

88MCTR

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$631.89

Value

$269.01

PnL

-$145.04

Record

42%

773-1074 (1847)

BillBenter2026

Nauhany Leme Da Silva

Invested

$128.24

Value

$143.93

PnL

+$15.69

Record

58%

18426-13514 (31940)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Nauhany Leme Da Silva

Invested

$46.37

Value

$45.41

PnL

-$0.96

Record

49%

18637-19066 (37703)

pauleta23<$100

Nauhany Leme Da Silva

Invested

$10

Value

$6.2

PnL

-$3.8

Record

67%

23119-11523 (34642)

HRTrading<$100

Nauhany Leme Da Silva

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

3109-2775 (5884)

TRCM<$100

Nauhany Leme Da Silva

Invested

Value

$3.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

3919-3151 (7070)

Research grade

AvoidLuisina Giovannini at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Luisina Giovannini

6 of 13 top traders (46%)Underdog side (market favors Nauhany Leme Da Silva 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luisina Giovannini wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.