Guangzhou Open: Han Shi vs Dayana Yastremska
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Dayana Yastremska (67%) · Dayana Yastremska at 61¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Dayana Yastremska
6
Dayana Yastremska 67%
$1.9K
$38.27
58.8¢ → 60.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDayana Yastremska at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Dayana Yastremskaavg 59¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$32.43 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Dayana Yastremskaavg 57.2¢ | $282.95 | $289.42 | +$6.47 | 49% 18554-18963 (37517) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Dayana Yastremskaavg 61¢ | $76.86 | $76.23 | -$0.63 | 56% 6870-5503 (12373) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Han Shiavg 41.5¢ | $60.58 | $60.59 | +$0.01 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Dayana Yastremskaavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $3.08 | +$0.03 | 49% 1874-1975 (3849) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Han Shiavg 42¢ | $2.84 | $2.81 | -$0.03 | 62% 13594-8446 (22040) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,523.17
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$32.43
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
Invested
$282.95
Value
$289.42
PnL
+$6.47
Record
49%
18554-18963 (37517)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$76.86
Value
$76.23
PnL
-$0.63
Record
56%
6870-5503 (12373)
Invested
$60.58
Value
$60.59
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$3.08
PnL
+$0.03
Record
49%
1874-1975 (3849)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$2.81
PnL
-$0.03
Record
62%
13594-8446 (22040)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.