Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Andrea Lazaro Garcia, while the market favors Katrina Scott (70%). 3 of 26 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Sopo: Katrina Scott vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia

3 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Andrea Lazaro Garcia (12%) · Andrea Lazaro Garcia at 31¢ · $367K held · ends Nov 17

Katrina Scott70¢Andrea Lazaro Garcia30¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Consensus Traders

Andrea Lazaro Garcia 12%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$367.0K

Combined PnL

$32.8K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 30.5¢

-41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAndrea Lazaro Garcia at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

3 of 26 top traders (12%)Underdog side (market favors Katrina Scott 70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Katrina Scott70%

Andrea Lazaro Garcia31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Andrea Lazaro Garcia3 traders

Total Value$173.2K

Total Shares329,857

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Katrina Scott23 traders

Total Value$177.6K

Total Shares279,755

Combined PnL+$31.5K

Andrea Lazaro Garcia — 12%Katrina Scott — 88%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-69 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Andrea Lazaro Garcia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKatrina Scott 100% · 4

Diverging

sniperAndrea Lazaro Garcia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKatrina Scott 94% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedKatrina Scott 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Katrina Scott 88% · 26

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP Vps1CTR	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 52.1¢	$171.8K	$173.1K	+$1.3K	84% 75-14 (89)
RN1	Katrina Scottavg 49.8¢	$52.0K	$64.1K	+$12.2K	58% 3761-2714 (6475)
MA MadridTime	Katrina Scottavg 46.5¢	$31.8K	$44.9K	+$13.1K	25% 218-637 (855)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Katrina Scottavg 50.7¢	$23.1K	$21.7K	$-1.5K	54% 1629-1388 (3017)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Katrina Scottavg 48.8¢	$14.6K	$14.0K	+$537.98	51% 3162-3066 (6228)
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 48.8¢	$8.4K	$9.2K	+$938.22
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 50.4¢	$5.2K	$4.8K	-$400.23
VE Venusian	Katrina Scottavg 46.9¢	$9.4K	$12.2K	+$3.3K	25% 216-657 (873)
TH thirdt1me	Katrina Scottavg 49.1¢	$9.9K	$10.0K	+$765.52	37% 72-122 (194)
LI Limousin	Katrina Scottavg 45.6¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$163.43	25% 217-656 (873)
LI LightParadox	Katrina Scottavg 50.7¢	$5.1K	$6.3K	+$1.3K	25% 218-645 (863)
HV HVAB	Katrina Scottavg 47¢	$5.3K	$2.8K	+$746.76	26% 9-25 (34)
tradecraft	Katrina Scottavg 43.1¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$646.17	16% 112-570 (682)
TRCM	Katrina Scottavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$435.97	8% 38-417 (455)
TH thestingsnake	Katrina Scottavg 41.2¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$339.6	18% 74-342 (416)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Katrina Scottavg 53.5¢	$1.5K	$890.99	-$15.8	18% 80-370 (450)
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 53.5¢	$484.56	$516.34	+$36.98
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 51.1¢	$445.64	$374.65	-$52.79
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.4¢	$641.59	$639.85	-$1.73	56% 3799-2963 (6762)
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 47.7¢	$316.79	$378.4	+$61.61
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.4¢	$324.8	$261.46	-$63.34
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Katrina Scottavg 48.4¢	$1.3K	$630.22	+$32.73	48% 879-959 (1838)
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 48.4¢	$416.64	$468.7	+$42.36
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 48.2¢	$171.15	$161.52	-$9.63
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Katrina Scottavg 53¢	$530	$535	+$5	9% 78-775 (853)
SE sentrio	Katrina Scottavg 52¢	$555.2	$508.65	-$46.55	31% 170-384 (554)
SU suitcase6628	Katrina Scottavg 44.3¢	$402.9	$477.75	+$74.85	64% 155-88 (243)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Katrina Scottavg 43.2¢	$219.75	$267.08	+$47.33	24% 99-314 (413)
machinelearned	Katrina Scottavg 48.1¢	$271.01	$236.48	-$34.53	36% 344-620 (964)
CI cigarettes	Katrina Scottavg 47¢	$235	$210	-$25	53% 5381-4862 (10243)
VeryLucky888	Katrina Scottavg 19¢	$95	$210	+$115	49% 235-240 (475)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 64¢	$104.85	$96.47	-$8.38	52% 65-61 (126)
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 64¢	$83.2	$75.4	-$7.8
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 43.2¢	$21.65	$21.07	-$0.58
LR lryyy<$100	Katrina Scottavg 45.2¢	$99.44	$92.4	-$7.04	50% 157-160 (317)

Vps1CTR

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$171,820.02

Value

$173.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

84%

75-14 (89)

RN1

Katrina Scott

Invested

$51,956.37

Value

$64.1K

PnL

+$12.2K

Record

58%

3761-2714 (6475)

MadridTime

Katrina Scott

Invested

$31,793.25

Value

$44.9K

PnL

+$13.1K

Record

25%

218-637 (855)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Katrina Scott

Invested

$23,136.18

Value

$21.7K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

1629-1388 (3017)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Katrina Scott

Invested

$14,566.93

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$537.98

Record

51%

3162-3066 (6228)

Both legs:

Katrina Scott$8,376.3848.8¢+$938.22

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$5,215.2750.4¢-$400.23

Venusian

Katrina Scott

Invested

$9,430.56

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

25%

216-657 (873)

thirdt1me

Katrina Scott

Invested

$9,919.14

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$765.52

Record

37%

72-122 (194)

Limousin

Katrina Scott

Invested

$7,800.03

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$163.43

Record

25%

217-656 (873)

LightParadox

Katrina Scott

Invested

$5,111.4

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

25%

218-645 (863)

HVAB

Katrina Scott

Invested

$5,259.7

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$746.76

Record

26%

9-25 (34)

tradecraft

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,305.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$646.17

Record

16%

112-570 (682)

TRCM

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,291.9

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$435.97

Record

38-417 (455)

thestingsnake

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,041.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$339.6

Record

18%

74-342 (416)

babybellsARB<$100

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,521.44

Value

$890.99

PnL

-$15.8

Record

18%

80-370 (450)

Both legs:

Katrina Scott$484.5653.5¢+$36.98

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$445.6451.1¢-$52.79

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$641.59

Value

$639.85

PnL

-$1.73

Record

56%

3799-2963 (6762)

Both legs:

Katrina Scott$316.7947.7¢+$61.61

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$324.853.4¢-$63.34

38791873984189ARB<$100

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,283.49

Value

$630.22

PnL

+$32.73

Record

48%

879-959 (1838)

Both legs:

Katrina Scott$416.6448.4¢+$42.36

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$171.1548.2¢-$9.63

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Katrina Scott

Invested

$530

Value

$535

PnL

+$5

Record

78-775 (853)

sentrio

Katrina Scott

Invested

$555.2

Value

$508.65

PnL

-$46.55

Record

31%

170-384 (554)

suitcase6628

Katrina Scott

Invested

$402.9

Value

$477.75

PnL

+$74.85

Record

64%

155-88 (243)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Katrina Scott

Invested

$219.75

Value

$267.08

PnL

+$47.33

Record

24%

99-314 (413)

machinelearned

Katrina Scott

Invested

$271.01

Value

$236.48

PnL

-$34.53

Record

36%

344-620 (964)

cigarettes

Katrina Scott

Invested

$235

Value

$210

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

5381-4862 (10243)

VeryLucky888

Katrina Scott

Invested

$95

Value

$210

PnL

+$115

Record

49%

235-240 (475)

EulhunterARB<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$104.85

Value

$96.47

PnL

-$8.38

Record

52%

65-61 (126)

Both legs:

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$83.264¢-$7.8

Katrina Scott$21.6543.2¢-$0.58

lryyy<$100

Katrina Scott

Invested

$99.44

Value

$92.4

PnL

-$7.04

Record

50%

157-160 (317)

Research grade

NeutralAndrea Lazaro Garcia at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

3 of 26 top traders (12%)Underdog side (market favors Katrina Scott 70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-69 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Andrea Lazaro Garcia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKatrina Scott 100% · 4

Diverging

sniperAndrea Lazaro Garcia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrKatrina Scott 94% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedKatrina Scott 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Katrina Scott 88% · 26

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Andrea Lazaro Garcia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.