Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mai Hontama, while the market favors Mananchaya Sawangkaew (62%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Chennai Open: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mai Hontama

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Mai Hontama (50%) · Mai Hontama at 39¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 9

Mananchaya Sawangkaew62¢Mai Hontama38¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Mai Hontama

Consensus Traders

Mai Hontama 50%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$24.74

Smart Money Entry

39¢ → 38.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralMai Hontama at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mai Hontama

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Mananchaya Sawangkaew 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Mananchaya Sawangkaew62%

Mai Hontama39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mai Hontama4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,520

Combined PnL-$24.9

Mananchaya Sawangkaew4 traders

Total Value$733.39

Total Shares1,147

Combined PnL+$0.15

Mai Hontama — 50%Mananchaya Sawangkaew — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Mai Hontama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Mananchaya Sawangkaew) and the top 1000 (6 on Mai Hontama) disagree here.

whaleMananchaya Sawangkaew 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMananchaya Sawangkaew 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMananchaya Sawangkaew 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Mai Hontama 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Mai Hontamaavg 39¢	$4.0K	$1.5K	-$20	54% 191-164 (355)
VeryLucky888	Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 61¢	$510.72	$510.72	-$0	58% 43595-31708 (75303)
38 38791873984189	Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 61¢	$203.9	$203.9	+$0	47% 12988-14555 (27543)
NO NotJumpCTR	Mai Hontamaavg 39¢	$195	$190	-$5	43% 7727-10453 (18180)
0xheavy888<$100	Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 61¢	$15.56	$15.69	+$0.13	55% 7458-5981 (13439)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Mai Hontamaavg 38¢	$7.14	$7.23	+$0.09	61% 13844-8749 (22593)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mananchaya Sawangkaewavg 61¢	$5	$3.08	+$0.03	52% 7637-6912 (14549)
RN1CTR<$100	Mai Hontamaavg 38¢	$0.61	$0.62	+$0.01	54% 58124-50358 (108482)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Mai Hontama

Invested

$3,999.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$20

Record

54%

191-164 (355)

VeryLucky888

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Invested

$510.72

Value

$510.72

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

43595-31708 (75303)

38791873984189

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Invested

$203.9

Value

$203.9

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

12988-14555 (27543)

NotJumpCTR

Mai Hontama

Invested

$195

Value

$190

PnL

-$5

Record

43%

7727-10453 (18180)

0xheavy888<$100

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Invested

$15.56

Value

$15.69

PnL

+$0.13

Record

55%

7458-5981 (13439)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Mai Hontama

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.23

PnL

+$0.09

Record

61%

13844-8749 (22593)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Invested

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

7637-6912 (14549)

RN1CTR<$100

Mai Hontama

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.62

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

58124-50358 (108482)

Research grade

NeutralMai Hontama at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mai Hontama

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Mananchaya Sawangkaew 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Mai Hontama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Mananchaya Sawangkaew) and the top 1000 (6 on Mai Hontama) disagree here.

whaleMananchaya Sawangkaew 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrMananchaya Sawangkaew 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMananchaya Sawangkaew 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Mai Hontama 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mai Hontama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.