WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Aryna Sabalenka (50%) · Aryna Sabalenka at 65¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 16

Aryna Sabalenka65¢Karolina Muchova35¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aryna Sabalenka

Consensus Traders

Aryna Sabalenka 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$320.95

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 64.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAryna Sabalenka at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aryna Sabalenka

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Aryna Sabalenka65%

Karolina Muchova36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aryna Sabalenka3 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,905

Combined PnL-$326.23

Karolina Muchova3 traders

Total Value$363.98

Total Shares1,055

Combined PnL+$5.28

Aryna Sabalenka — 50%Karolina Muchova — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Aryna Sabalenka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKarolina Muchova 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrAryna Sabalenka 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKarolina Muchova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Karolina Muchova 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK Kkunn	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 67.1¢	$7.8K	$5.0K	-$325.97	42% 263-365 (628)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.72	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
└ Aryna Sabalenka leg	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 65¢	$650	$645	-$5
└ Karolina Muchova leg	Karolina Muchovaavg 34.3¢	$520.09	$537.81	+$17.72
NM NM-PARB<$100	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 65¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.12	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
└ Aryna Sabalenka leg	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 65¢	$650	$645	-$5
└ Karolina Muchova leg	Karolina Muchovaavg 34.3¢	$424.1	$439.22	+$15.12
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 64.2¢	$1.2K	$425.88	+$18.88	58% 53852-38329 (92181)
└ Aryna Sabalenka leg	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 64.2¢	$321.24	$322.52	+$7.43
└ Karolina Muchova leg	Karolina Muchovaavg 34¢	$99	$103.37	+$11.46
0xheavy888CTR	Karolina Muchovaavg 34¢	$340	$345	+$5	56% 9043-7128 (16171)
EF efntrick<$100	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 65¢	$78	$77.4	-$0.6	49% 3741-3962 (7703)
38 38791873984189<$100	Aryna Sabalenkaavg 65¢	$43.13	$43.48	+$0.34	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Karolina Muchovaavg 34¢	$17	$17.25	+$0.25	53% 6836-5985 (12821)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Karolina Muchovaavg 34¢	$5	$1.73	+$0.03	53% 14841-13046 (27887)

Kkunn

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$7,769.24

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$325.97

Record

42%

263-365 (628)

GC-PARB<$100

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$1,170.08

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.72

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

Both legs:

Aryna Sabalenka$65065¢-$5

Karolina Muchova$520.0934.3¢+$17.72

NM-PARB<$100

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$1,074.1

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.12

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

Both legs:

Aryna Sabalenka$65065¢-$5

Karolina Muchova$424.134.3¢+$15.12

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$1,184.26

Value

$425.88

PnL

+$18.88

Record

58%

53852-38329 (92181)

Both legs:

Aryna Sabalenka$321.2464.2¢+$7.43

Karolina Muchova$9934¢+$11.46

0xheavy888CTR

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$340

Value

$345

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

9043-7128 (16171)

efntrick<$100

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$78

Value

$77.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

49%

3741-3962 (7703)

38791873984189<$100

Aryna Sabalenka

Invested

$43.13

Value

$43.48

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Karolina Muchova

Invested

$17

Value

$17.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

6836-5985 (12821)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Karolina Muchova

Invested

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

14841-13046 (27887)

Research grade

NeutralAryna Sabalenka at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Aryna Sabalenka

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Aryna Sabalenka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKarolina Muchova 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrAryna Sabalenka 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedKarolina Muchova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Karolina Muchova 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aryna Sabalenka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.