Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Leylah Fernandez, while the market favors Elena Rybakina (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Pan Pacific Open: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Leylah Fernandez (60%) · Leylah Fernandez at 25¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Leylah Fernandez
5
Leylah Fernandez 60%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$8.51
23¢ → 24.5¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidLeylah Fernandez at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Elena Rybakina 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Leylah Fernandez. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotradecopyCTR | Leylah Fernandezavg 23¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | -$0 | 49% 3911-4107 (8018) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Leylah Fernandezavg 23¢ | $1,000 | $1,000 | -$0 | 51% 3916-3831 (7747) |
 VeryLucky888ARB<$100 | Leylah Fernandezavg 23.5¢ | $673.86 | $335.28 | -$0.39 | 58% 41361-29991 (71352) |
| └ Leylah Fernandez leg | Leylah Fernandezavg 23.5¢ | $185.54 | $181.28 | -$2.88 | |
| └ Elena Rybakina leg | Elena Rybakinaavg 76¢ | $152 | $154 | +$2.5 | |
38 38791873984189 | Elena Rybakinaavg 75¢ | $293.5 | $300.1 | +$6.6 | — |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Elena Rybakinaavg 76¢ | $90.03 | $91.03 | +$0.42 | 55% 7013-5629 (12642) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Leylah Fernandezavg 23¢ | $11.5 | $23 | +$1.5 | 55% 5681-4719 (10400) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
3911-4107 (8018)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1,000
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
3916-3831 (7747)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100Invested
$673.86
Value
$335.28
PnL
-$0.39
Record
58%
41361-29991 (71352)
Both legs:
Invested
$293.5
Value
$300.1
PnL
+$6.6
Record
—
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$90.03
Value
$91.03
PnL
+$0.42
Record
55%
7013-5629 (12642)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$23
PnL
+$1.5
Record
55%
5681-4719 (10400)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.