Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Antonia Ruzic, while the market favors Claire Liu (54%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Guangzhou Open: Antonia Ruzic vs Claire Liu
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Antonia Ruzic (67%) · Antonia Ruzic at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Antonia Ruzic
6
Antonia Ruzic 67%
$2.2K
$33.8
45.4¢ → 46.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralAntonia Ruzic at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Claire Liu 54%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SA Salad1CTR | Antonia Ruzicavg 45.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$34.84 | 50% 88-88 (176) |
 VeryLucky888 | Claire Liuavg 55¢ | $776.67 | $545 | -$0.88 | 58% 40340-29132 (69472) |
 0xheavy888 | Claire Liuavg 55¢ | $109.2 | $108.15 | -$1.05 | 56% 6824-5466 (12290) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Antonia Ruzicavg 45.8¢ | $37.84 | $37.56 | -$0.27 | 62% 13571-8389 (21960) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Antonia Ruzicavg 44¢ | $25.08 | $25.94 | +$0.86 | 58% 27838-20469 (48307) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Antonia Ruzicavg 44¢ | $9.05 | $9.35 | +$0.31 | 54% 55279-47296 (102575) |
Invested
$1,405.65
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$34.84
Record
50%
88-88 (176)
VeryLucky888Invested
$776.67
Value
$545
PnL
-$0.88
Record
58%
40340-29132 (69472)
0xheavy888Invested
$109.2
Value
$108.15
PnL
-$1.05
Record
56%
6824-5466 (12290)
Invested
$37.84
Value
$37.56
PnL
-$0.27
Record
62%
13571-8389 (21960)
Invested
$25.08
Value
$25.94
PnL
+$0.86
Record
58%
27838-20469 (48307)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$9.05
Value
$9.35
PnL
+$0.31
Record
54%
55279-47296 (102575)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.