Queretaro: Victoria Rodriguez vs Alicia Herrero Linana

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Alicia Herrero Linana (78%) · Alicia Herrero Linana at 82¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Victoria Rodriguez18¢Alicia Herrero Linana82¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alicia Herrero Linana

Consensus Traders

Alicia Herrero Linana 78%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$29.74

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 82¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlicia Herrero Linana at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alicia Herrero Linana

7 of 9 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Victoria Rodriguez18%

Alicia Herrero Linana82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alicia Herrero Linana7 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,796

Combined PnL-$37.16

Victoria Rodriguez2 traders

Total Value$23.91

Total Shares110

Combined PnL+$7.42

Alicia Herrero Linana — 78%Victoria Rodriguez — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Alicia Herrero Linana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlicia Herrero Linana 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAlicia Herrero Linana 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAlicia Herrero Linana 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlicia Herrero Linana 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Alicia Herrero Linana 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 91.6¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$83.41	52% 13523-12371 (25894)
TH thestingsnake	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 89.2¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$102.92	60% 3937-2658 (6595)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 84.3¢	$939.35	$209.06	+$77.15	53% 606-533 (1139)
└ Alicia Herrero Linana leg	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 84.3¢	$169.21	$164.51	+$38.97
└ Victoria Rodriguez leg	Victoria Rodriguezavg 14.9¢	$36.92	$44.55	+$38.19
ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 27.5¢	$1.7K	$194.97	-$113.55	80% 4958-1226 (6184)
└ Victoria Rodriguez leg	Victoria Rodriguezavg 27.5¢	$168.05	$110	-$58.05
└ Alicia Herrero Linana leg	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 89.9¢	$93.11	$84.97	-$55.5
HRTradingARB<$100	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 86.4¢	$119.05	$170.19	+$51.14	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
└ Alicia Herrero Linana leg	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 86.4¢	$106.44	$101.07	-$5.37
└ Victoria Rodriguez leg	Victoria Rodriguezavg 3.3¢	$12.61	$69.12	+$56.51
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 94¢	$50.52	$44.07	-$6.45	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
0xheavy888<$100	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 88¢	$35.19	$29	-$6.2	56% 6856-5494 (12350)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 87.5¢	$28.86	$27.06	-$1.8	58% 18334-13463 (31797)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 86.5¢	$28.59	$25.13	-$3.46	67% 23062-11454 (34516)
EF efntrick<$100	Alicia Herrero Linanaavg 81.2¢	$24.35	$24.6	+$0.25	48% 3639-3895 (7534)
RN1CTR<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 15.1¢	$11.74	$13.69	+$1.95	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
FL flatbarrelCTR<$100	Victoria Rodriguezavg 17.9¢	$4.74	$10.22	+$5.47	58% 2731-1953 (4684)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$2,250.87

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$83.41

Record

52%

13523-12371 (25894)

thestingsnake

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$1,491.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$102.92

Record

60%

3937-2658 (6595)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$939.35

Value

$209.06

PnL

+$77.15

Record

53%

606-533 (1139)

Both legs:

Alicia Herrero Linana$169.2184.3¢+$38.97

Victoria Rodriguez$36.9214.9¢+$38.19

ZaiZoiBeleARB<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$1,748.37

Value

$194.97

PnL

-$113.55

Record

80%

4958-1226 (6184)

Both legs:

Victoria Rodriguez$168.0527.5¢-$58.05

Alicia Herrero Linana$93.1189.9¢-$55.5

HRTradingARB<$100

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$119.05

Value

$170.19

PnL

+$51.14

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Both legs:

Alicia Herrero Linana$106.4486.4¢-$5.37

Victoria Rodriguez$12.613.3¢+$56.51

HomeRunHazard<$100

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$50.52

Value

$44.07

PnL

-$6.45

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

0xheavy888<$100

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$35.19

Value

$29

PnL

-$6.2

Record

56%

6856-5494 (12350)

BillBenter2026<$100

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$28.86

Value

$27.06

PnL

-$1.8

Record

58%

18334-13463 (31797)

pauleta23<$100

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$28.59

Value

$25.13

PnL

-$3.46

Record

67%

23062-11454 (34516)

efntrick<$100

Alicia Herrero Linana

Invested

$24.35

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$0.25

Record

48%

3639-3895 (7534)

RN1CTR<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$11.74

Value

$13.69

PnL

+$1.95

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

flatbarrelCTR<$100

Victoria Rodriguez

Invested

$4.74

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$5.47

Record

58%

2731-1953 (4684)

Research grade

NeutralAlicia Herrero Linana at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alicia Herrero Linana

7 of 9 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Alicia Herrero Linana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlicia Herrero Linana 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpAlicia Herrero Linana 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAlicia Herrero Linana 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlicia Herrero Linana 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Alicia Herrero Linana 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alicia Herrero Linana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.