Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Julia Riera, while the market favors Solana Sierra (53%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Curitiba: Julia Riera vs Solana Sierra
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Riera (71%) · Julia Riera at 48¢ · $794 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
Julia Riera
7
Julia Riera 71%
$794.24
$21.03
46.2¢ → 47.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralJulia Riera at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Solana Sierra 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Julia Rieraavg 46¢ | $230 | $235 | +$5 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Solana Sierraavg 52¢ | $169.64 | $168.01 | -$1.63 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
 RN1CTR | Julia Rieraavg 46¢ | $143.12 | $150.9 | +$7.78 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Julia Rieraavg 46¢ | $119.14 | $125.62 | +$6.47 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Julia Rieraavg 46¢ | $53.65 | $56.56 | +$2.92 | 62% 13684-8536 (22220) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Julia Rieraavg 48¢ | $48.96 | $49.47 | +$0.51 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Solana Sierraavg 52¢ | $8.7 | $8.68 | -$0.01 | 55% 7053-5657 (12710) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$230
Value
$235
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$169.64
Value
$168.01
PnL
-$1.63
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
RN1CTRInvested
$143.12
Value
$150.9
PnL
+$7.78
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Invested
$119.14
Value
$125.62
PnL
+$6.47
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Invested
$53.65
Value
$56.56
PnL
+$2.92
Record
62%
13684-8536 (22220)
Invested
$48.96
Value
$49.47
PnL
+$0.51
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
$8.68
PnL
-$0.01
Record
55%
7053-5657 (12710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.