Curitiba: Julia Riera vs Rebeka Masarova

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Rebeka Masarova (70%) · Rebeka Masarova at 88¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

Julia Riera12¢Rebeka Masarova88¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rebeka Masarova

Consensus Traders

Rebeka Masarova 70%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

-$45.07

Smart Money Entry

85.6¢ → 87.6¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRebeka Masarova at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rebeka Masarova

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Julia Riera12%

Rebeka Masarova88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rebeka Masarova7 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,489

Combined PnL-$14.37

Julia Riera3 traders

Total Value$65.72

Total Shares831

Combined PnL-$30.7

Rebeka Masarova — 70%Julia Riera — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 34.5¢	$7.8K	$4.3K	$-3.5K	54% 55318-47360 (102678)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 93.2¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$154.19
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 34.5¢	$5.2K	$1.9K	$-3.3K
UP UpTheBlues	Rebeka Masarovaavg 83.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$38.76	59% 44247-30614 (74861)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 23.1¢	$2.7K	$2.3K	-$392.23	54% 16738-14040 (30778)
└ Rebeka Masarova leg	Rebeka Masarovaavg 69¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$324.62
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 23.1¢	$1.5K	$821.44	-$716.85
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Rebeka Masarovaavg 93.1¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$32.52	52% 13478-12328 (25806)
1L 1lovejump	Rebeka Masarovaavg 88.7¢	$688.69	$624.69	-$38.45	53% 575-515 (1090)
0xheavy888	Rebeka Masarovaavg 62¢	$450	$294.75	+$15.75	56% 6840-5478 (12318)
TH thestingsnake	Rebeka Masarovaavg 94¢	$318.1	$284.08	-$13.5	60% 3897-2643 (6540)
BI BillBenter2026	Rebeka Masarovaavg 77.8¢	$124.41	$141.44	+$17.03	58% 18298-13444 (31742)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 9.3¢	$66.08	$56.72	-$9.36	52% 5814-5435 (11249)
HRTrading<$100	Rebeka Masarovaavg 96¢	$26.3	$24.86	-$1.44	54% 2558-2193 (4751)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 29.7¢	$15.99	$7.09	-$10.35	48% 3613-3865 (7478)
TRCMCTR<$100	Julia Rieraavg 17.2¢	$12.9	$1.91	-$10.99	55% 3893-3124 (7017)

RN1ARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$7,797.46

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-3.5K

Record

54%

55318-47360 (102678)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$2,599.0493.2¢-$154.19

Julia Riera$5,198.4234.5¢$-3.3K

UpTheBlues

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$2,323.02

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$38.76

Record

59%

44247-30614 (74861)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$2,739.29

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$392.23

Record

54%

16738-14040 (30778)

Both legs:

Rebeka Masarova$1,20169¢+$324.62

Julia Riera$1,538.2923.1¢-$716.85

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$1,654.85

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$32.52

Record

52%

13478-12328 (25806)

1lovejump

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$688.69

Value

$624.69

PnL

-$38.45

Record

53%

575-515 (1090)

0xheavy888

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$450

Value

$294.75

PnL

+$15.75

Record

56%

6840-5478 (12318)

thestingsnake

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$318.1

Value

$284.08

PnL

-$13.5

Record

60%

3897-2643 (6540)

BillBenter2026

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$124.41

Value

$141.44

PnL

+$17.03

Record

58%

18298-13444 (31742)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$66.08

Value

$56.72

PnL

-$9.36

Record

52%

5814-5435 (11249)

HRTrading<$100

Rebeka Masarova

Invested

$26.3

Value

$24.86

PnL

-$1.44

Record

54%

2558-2193 (4751)

efntrickCTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$15.99

Value

$7.09

PnL

-$10.35

Record

48%

3613-3865 (7478)

TRCMCTR<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$12.9

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$10.99

Record

55%

3893-3124 (7017)

Research grade

NeutralRebeka Masarova at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rebeka Masarova

7 of 10 top traders (70%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rebeka Masarova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.