Curitiba: Julia Riera vs Yasmine Kabbaj

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Julia Riera (82%) · Julia Riera at 94¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 5

Julia Riera94¢Yasmine Kabbaj6¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Julia Riera

Consensus Traders

Julia Riera 82%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.6K

Combined PnL

$-6.8K

Smart Money Entry

89.6¢ → 93.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJulia Riera at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Riera

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Julia Riera94%

Yasmine Kabbaj7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Julia Riera9 traders

Total Value$28.4K

Total Shares32,983

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yasmine Kabbaj2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares95,089

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Julia Riera — 82%Yasmine Kabbaj — 18%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Julia Rieraavg 92¢	$19.2K	$17.0K	$-2.2K	54% 17005-14250 (31255)
RN1	Julia Rieraavg 85¢	$6.7K	$7.2K	+$508.21	54% 56032-48155 (104187)
GO gomestennisCTR	Yasmine Kabbajavg 10¢	$9.5K	$4.3K	$-5.2K	— 0-1 (1)
tradecraft	Julia Rieraavg 90.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$55.29	51% 5923-5598 (11521)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Julia Rieraavg 83.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$18.92	52% 13655-12480 (26135)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 22.5¢	$635.15	$511.81	-$123.33	59% 45098-31483 (76581)
└ Yasmine Kabbaj leg	Yasmine Kabbajavg 22.5¢	$467.25	$322.53	-$144.71
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 75¢	$167.9	$189.28	+$21.38
GH ghostorder	Julia Rieraavg 93¢	$465	$462.5	-$2.5	62% 4319-2662 (6981)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Julia Rieraavg 89.1¢	$399	$368.58	-$6.42	60% 3998-2687 (6685)
└ Julia Riera leg	Julia Rieraavg 89.1¢	$270.37	$271.45	-$0.95
└ Yasmine Kabbaj leg	Yasmine Kabbajavg 11¢	$101.48	$97.13	-$5.47
VeryLucky888	Julia Rieraavg 69¢	$207.79	$203.91	+$0.06	58% 41218-29884 (71102)
BI BillBenter2026	Julia Rieraavg 89.2¢	$98.12	$102.85	+$4.73	58% 18495-13582 (32077)
HRTrading<$100	Julia Rieraavg 90.8¢	$61.94	$59.68	-$2.26	52% 3691-3354 (7045)
0xheavy888<$100	Julia Rieraavg 68.5¢	$54.8	$55.6	+$0.8	55% 6990-5610 (12600)
OL olivereaCTR<$100	Yasmine Kabbajavg 32¢	$44.8	$43.4	-$2.1	59% 308-212 (520)

HomeRunHazard

Julia Riera

Invested

$19,249.34

Value

$17.0K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

54%

17005-14250 (31255)

RN1

Julia Riera

Invested

$6,650.75

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$508.21

Record

54%

56032-48155 (104187)

gomestennisCTR

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$9,464

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

—

0-1 (1)

tradecraft

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,838.35

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$55.29

Record

51%

5923-5598 (11521)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Julia Riera

Invested

$1,392.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$18.92

Record

52%

13655-12480 (26135)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$635.15

Value

$511.81

PnL

-$123.33

Record

59%

45098-31483 (76581)

Both legs:

Yasmine Kabbaj$467.2522.5¢-$144.71

Julia Riera$167.975¢+$21.38

ghostorder

Julia Riera

Invested

$465

Value

$462.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

62%

4319-2662 (6981)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$399

Value

$368.58

PnL

-$6.42

Record

60%

3998-2687 (6685)

Both legs:

Julia Riera$270.3789.1¢-$0.95

Yasmine Kabbaj$101.4811¢-$5.47

VeryLucky888

Julia Riera

Invested

$207.79

Value

$203.91

PnL

+$0.06

Record

58%

41218-29884 (71102)

BillBenter2026

Julia Riera

Invested

$98.12

Value

$102.85

PnL

+$4.73

Record

58%

18495-13582 (32077)

HRTrading<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$61.94

Value

$59.68

PnL

-$2.26

Record

52%

3691-3354 (7045)

0xheavy888<$100

Julia Riera

Invested

$54.8

Value

$55.6

PnL

+$0.8

Record

55%

6990-5610 (12600)

olivereaCTR<$100

Yasmine Kabbaj

Invested

$44.8

Value

$43.4

PnL

-$2.1

Record

59%

308-212 (520)

Research grade

NeutralJulia Riera at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Julia Riera

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Julia Riera wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.