Courmayeur: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Marina Bassols Ribera (43%) · Marina Bassols Ribera at 77¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3

Marina Bassols Ribera77¢Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva23¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Marina Bassols Ribera

Consensus Traders

Marina Bassols Ribera 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

-$107.88

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 76.5¢

-7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralMarina Bassols Ribera at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Marina Bassols Ribera

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Marina Bassols Ribera77%

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marina Bassols Ribera6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,275

Combined PnL+$167.78

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva8 traders

Total Value$487.04

Total Shares1,487

Combined PnL-$275.66

Marina Bassols Ribera — 43%Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 83.4¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$164.82	54% 16731-14038 (30769)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 45.8¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$490.19	59% 44240-30609 (74849)
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 45.8¢	$853.09	$1.4K	+$572.68
└ Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva leg	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 27.7¢	$542.56	$460.06	-$82.49
RN1CTR	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 55¢	$524.51	$352.03	-$172.49	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
TH thestingsnake	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 76¢	$177.7	$137.69	-$20.67	60% 3888-2641 (6529)
tradecraft<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 65.4¢	$37.85	$39.88	+$2.03	52% 5809-5432 (11241)
1L 1lovejump	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 70.4¢	$181.59	$38.48	+$19.04	53% 570-513 (1083)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 48.4¢	$119.68	$35.83	-$83.85	52% 13467-12324 (25791)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 30.7¢	$43.24	$26.08	-$17.16	67% 23017-11419 (34436)
VeryLucky888<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 57¢	$34.97	$26.03	+$1.05	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 42¢	$22.71	$22.17	-$0.54	58% 27868-20501 (48369)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 42¢	$16.91	$16.5	-$0.4	62% 13574-8401 (21975)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 45¢	$18	$16.4	-$1.6	56% 6836-5476 (12312)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 47¢	$9.4	$10.3	+$0.9	54% 2551-2184 (4735)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Victoria Jimenez Kasintsevaavg 55¢	$8.25	$7.73	-$0.52	48% 3606-3861 (7467)
TRCM<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 44¢	$4.4	$5.9	+$1.5	55% 3891-3121 (7012)

HomeRunHazard

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$3,342.2

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$164.82

Record

54%

16731-14038 (30769)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$1,395.65

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$490.19

Record

59%

44240-30609 (74849)

Both legs:

Marina Bassols Ribera$853.0945.8¢+$572.68

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva$542.5627.7¢-$82.49

RN1CTR

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$524.51

Value

$352.03

PnL

-$172.49

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

thestingsnake

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$177.7

Value

$137.69

PnL

-$20.67

Record

60%

3888-2641 (6529)

tradecraft<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$37.85

Value

$39.88

PnL

+$2.03

Record

52%

5809-5432 (11241)

1lovejump

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$181.59

Value

$38.48

PnL

+$19.04

Record

53%

570-513 (1083)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$119.68

Value

$35.83

PnL

-$83.85

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$43.24

Value

$26.08

PnL

-$17.16

Record

67%

23017-11419 (34436)

VeryLucky888<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$34.97

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$1.05

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$22.71

Value

$22.17

PnL

-$0.54

Record

58%

27868-20501 (48369)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$16.91

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$0.4

Record

62%

13574-8401 (21975)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$18

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

56%

6836-5476 (12312)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$9.4

Value

$10.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

2551-2184 (4735)

efntrickCTR<$100

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Invested

$8.25

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

3606-3861 (7467)

TRCM<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$1.5

Record

55%

3891-3121 (7012)

Research grade

NeutralMarina Bassols Ribera at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Marina Bassols Ribera

6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Marina Bassols Ribera wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.