Courmayeur: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Alina Charaeva

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Alina Charaeva (55%) · Alina Charaeva at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Marina Bassols Ribera16¢Alina Charaeva84¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alina Charaeva

Consensus Traders

Alina Charaeva 55%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$104.33

Smart Money Entry

78.5¢ → 84.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Marina Bassols Ribera16%

Alina Charaeva85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alina Charaeva6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,507

Combined PnL+$110.36

Marina Bassols Ribera5 traders

Total Value$43.74

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$6.03

Alina Charaeva — 55%Marina Bassols Ribera — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thestingsnake	Alina Charaevaavg 91.7¢	$664.5	$623.75	-$32.01	60% 4032-2723 (6755)
38 38791873984189	Alina Charaevaavg 64.7¢	$335.9	$402.5	+$138.36	46% 7940-9367 (17307)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 63.9¢	$164.55	$192.39	+$19.27	52% 13719-12523 (26242)
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 63.9¢	$91.26	$123.54	+$23.72
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 14.4¢	$73.3	$68.85	-$4.45
VeryLucky888	Alina Charaevaavg 68¢	$119.07	$119.95	+$0.88	58% 41488-30106 (71594)
0xheavy888<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 68.3¢	$99	$99.33	+$0.33	56% 7053-5654 (12707)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 19.4¢	$100.34	$48.13	-$52.2	54% 17115-14330 (31445)
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 19.4¢	$79.8	$26.7	-$53.1
└ Alina Charaeva leg	Alina Charaevaavg 89.6¢	$20.54	$21.43	+$0.89
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 36¢	$32.4	$28.35	-$4.05	48% 753-814 (1567)
PA pauleta23<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 79.2¢	$20.98	$23.71	+$2.73	67% 23266-11671 (34937)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 10¢	$8.9	$9.34	+$0.44	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
TRCM<$100	Alina Charaevaavg 88¢	$4.4	$4.48	+$0.07	55% 3937-3174 (7111)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 18¢	$3.6	$3.1	-$0.5	51% 5972-5664 (11636)
RN1CTR<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 22.3¢	$4.45	$2.5	-$1.95	54% 56315-48472 (104787)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 30¢	$0.43	$0.45	+$0.02	58% 28411-20972 (49383)

thestingsnake

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$664.5

Value

$623.75

PnL

-$32.01

Record

60%

4032-2723 (6755)

38791873984189

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$335.9

Value

$402.5

PnL

+$138.36

Record

46%

7940-9367 (17307)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$164.55

Value

$192.39

PnL

+$19.27

Record

52%

13719-12523 (26242)

Both legs:

Alina Charaeva$91.2663.9¢+$23.72

Marina Bassols Ribera$73.314.4¢-$4.45

VeryLucky888

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$119.07

Value

$119.95

PnL

+$0.88

Record

58%

41488-30106 (71594)

0xheavy888<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$99

Value

$99.33

PnL

+$0.33

Record

56%

7053-5654 (12707)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$100.34

Value

$48.13

PnL

-$52.2

Record

54%

17115-14330 (31445)

Both legs:

Marina Bassols Ribera$79.819.4¢-$53.1

Alina Charaeva$20.5489.6¢+$0.89

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$32.4

Value

$28.35

PnL

-$4.05

Record

48%

753-814 (1567)

pauleta23<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$20.98

Value

$23.71

PnL

+$2.73

Record

67%

23266-11671 (34937)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$8.9

Value

$9.34

PnL

+$0.44

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

TRCM<$100

Alina Charaeva

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.48

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

3937-3174 (7111)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.5

Record

51%

5972-5664 (11636)

RN1CTR<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$4.45

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.95

Record

54%

56315-48472 (104787)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

28411-20972 (49383)

Research grade

NeutralAlina Charaeva at 85%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Alina Charaeva

6 of 11 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alina Charaeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.