Courmayeur: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Erika Andreeva
11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Marina Bassols Ribera (69%) · Marina Bassols Ribera at 93¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Marina Bassols Ribera
16
Marina Bassols Ribera 69%
2 arb excluded
$22.4K
$2.6K
63.3¢ → 92.5¢
+46% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralMarina Bassols Ribera at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 58.8¢ | $9.1K | $11.2K | +$2.0K | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
 RN1 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 72.2¢ | $7.0K | $7.0K | +$57.67 | 54% 56027-48153 (104180) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Erika Andreevaavg 60¢ | $2.7K | $1.7K | -$991.02 | 54% 17004-14250 (31254) |
| └ Marina Bassols Ribera leg | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 84¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$137.72 | |
| └ Erika Andreeva leg | Erika Andreevaavg 60¢ | $1.5K | $630.7 | -$853.3 | |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100 | Erika Andreevaavg 48.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$4.23 | 52% 13648-12476 (26124) |
| └ Marina Bassols Ribera leg | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 43.5¢ | $396.43 | $652.22 | +$255.79 | |
| └ Erika Andreeva leg | Erika Andreevaavg 48.7¢ | $627 | $366.98 | -$260.02 | |
TH thestingsnake | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 50.3¢ | $447.85 | $433.58 | +$147.4 | 60% 3995-2686 (6681) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Erika Andreevaavg 54¢ | $269.99 | $282.49 | +$12.5 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
 poshposh | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 46¢ | $123.08 | $196.43 | +$73.35 | 59% 9676-6661 (16337) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Erika Andreevaavg 27¢ | $94.5 | $129.5 | +$35 | 51% 1353-1295 (2648) |
BI BillBenter2026 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 82.9¢ | $126.77 | $119.18 | -$7.59 | 58% 18489-13574 (32063) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 44¢ | $87.77 | $86.77 | -$1 | 62% 13674-8506 (22180) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 40¢ | $54.06 | $58.79 | +$4.73 | 50% 3757-3733 (7490) |
FL flatbarrelCTR | Erika Andreevaavg 21¢ | $1.0K | $58.1 | +$207.8 | 58% 2737-1964 (4701) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 75.9¢ | $44.04 | $39.12 | -$4.92 | 51% 5922-5598 (11520) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Erika Andreevaavg 54¢ | $29.7 | $31.07 | +$1.37 | 55% 6990-5610 (12600) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 78¢ | $16.59 | $17.76 | +$1.17 | 52% 3688-3350 (7038) |
SC SchruteBucksCTR | Erika Andreevaavg 20.3¢ | $203.2 | $11.83 | +$48.6 | 56% 1822-1419 (3241) |
GH ghostorder<$100 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.73 | +$0.13 | 62% 4316-2662 (6978) |
1L 1lovejump<$100 | Marina Bassols Riberaavg 48¢ | $87.25 | $2.61 | +$6.81 | 53% 652-569 (1221) |
Invested
$9,143.95
Value
$11.2K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
RN1Invested
$6,976.36
Value
$7.0K
PnL
+$57.67
Record
54%
56027-48153 (104180)
Invested
$2,701.76
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$991.02
Record
54%
17004-14250 (31254)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,023.43
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$4.23
Record
52%
13648-12476 (26124)
Both legs:
Invested
$447.85
Value
$433.58
PnL
+$147.4
Record
60%
3995-2686 (6681)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$269.99
Value
$282.49
PnL
+$12.5
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
poshposhInvested
$123.08
Value
$196.43
PnL
+$73.35
Record
59%
9676-6661 (16337)
Invested
$94.5
Value
$129.5
PnL
+$35
Record
51%
1353-1295 (2648)
Invested
$126.77
Value
$119.18
PnL
-$7.59
Record
58%
18489-13574 (32063)
Invested
$87.77
Value
$86.77
PnL
-$1
Record
62%
13674-8506 (22180)
Invested
$54.06
Value
$58.79
PnL
+$4.73
Record
50%
3757-3733 (7490)
Invested
$1,044.41
Value
$58.1
PnL
+$207.8
Record
58%
2737-1964 (4701)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$44.04
Value
$39.12
PnL
-$4.92
Record
51%
5922-5598 (11520)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$29.7
Value
$31.07
PnL
+$1.37
Record
55%
6990-5610 (12600)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16.59
Value
$17.76
PnL
+$1.17
Record
52%
3688-3350 (7038)
Invested
$203.2
Value
$11.83
PnL
+$48.6
Record
56%
1822-1419 (3241)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.73
PnL
+$0.13
Record
62%
4316-2662 (6978)
Invested
$87.25
Value
$2.61
PnL
+$6.81
Record
53%
652-569 (1221)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
UpTheBlues
Marina Bassols Ribera — $11.2K
RN1
Marina Bassols Ribera — $7.0K
HomeRunHazard
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
thestingsnake
Marina Bassols Ribera — $433.58
VeryLucky888
CTRErika Andreeva — $282.49
poshposh
Marina Bassols Ribera — $196.43
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
CTRErika Andreeva — $129.5
BillBenter2026
Marina Bassols Ribera — $119.18
Lilybaeum
Marina Bassols Ribera — $86.77