Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi, while the market favors Katarzyna Kawa (77%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Chennai Open: Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi vs Katarzyna Kawa

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi (73%) · Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi at 24¢ · $826 held · ends Nov 9

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi24¢Katarzyna Kawa76¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Consensus Traders

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 73%

Total Value

$826.29

Combined PnL

$55.88

Smart Money Entry

23.2¢ → 23.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Katarzyna Kawa 77%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi24%

Katarzyna Kawa77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi8 traders

Total Value$757.85

Total Shares3,285

Combined PnL-$4.14

Katarzyna Kawa3 traders

Total Value$68.44

Total Shares88

Combined PnL+$60.02

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi — 73%Katarzyna Kawa — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 23¢	$524.18	$524.18	+$0	40% 1105-1676 (2781)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 23¢	$81.87	$81.87	+$0	45% 10597-12769 (23366)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 25¢	$75	$70.5	-$4.5	46% 8222-9595 (17817)
38 38791873984189<$100	Katarzyna Kawaavg 75¢	$5.22	$61.27	+$60	48% 14339-15840 (30179)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 23¢	$35.68	$35.68	+$0	58% 44437-32355 (76792)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 23.9¢	$133.35	$31.34	-$0.5	61% 13921-8934 (22855)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 23¢	$11.96	$11.96	+$0.78	58% 49422-35504 (84926)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Katarzyna Kawaavg 75¢	$4.17	$4.17	+$0.03	50% 20113-20444 (40557)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Katarzyna Kawaavg 75¢	$3	$3	+$0	64% 1844-1024 (2868)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 23¢	$1.15	$1.2	+$0.05	52% 8430-7691 (16121)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathiavg 23¢	$1.09	$1.12	+$0.02	71% 6979-2788 (9767)

mouzsynapseCTR

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$524.18

Value

$524.18

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1105-1676 (2781)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$81.87

Value

$81.87

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

10597-12769 (23366)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$75

Value

$70.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

46%

8222-9595 (17817)

38791873984189<$100

Katarzyna Kawa

Invested

$5.22

Value

$61.27

PnL

+$60

Record

48%

14339-15840 (30179)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$35.68

Value

$35.68

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

44437-32355 (76792)

LilybaeumCTR

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$133.35

Value

$31.34

PnL

-$0.5

Record

61%

13921-8934 (22855)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$11.96

Value

$11.96

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

49422-35504 (84926)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Katarzyna Kawa

Invested

$4.17

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

20113-20444 (40557)

darkumbreon88<$100

Katarzyna Kawa

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

1844-1024 (2868)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

8430-7691 (16121)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.02

Record

71%

6979-2788 (9767)

Research grade

AvoidMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Katarzyna Kawa 77%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maaya Rajeshwaran Revathi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.