Queretaro: Mell Elizabeth Reasco vs Diletta Cherubini
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Diletta Cherubini (67%) · Diletta Cherubini at 100¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Diletta Cherubini
9
Diletta Cherubini 67%
$48.5K
$3.6K
80.4¢ → 100¢
+24% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDiletta Cherubini at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HV HVAB | Diletta Cherubiniavg 75.8¢ | $33.8K | $34.7K | +$8.4K | 76% 556-178 (734) |
 RN1 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 94.6¢ | $13.5K | $9.3K | $-4.3K | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 93.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.0K | -$581.77 | 52% 13520-12365 (25885) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Diletta Cherubiniavg 95.8¢ | $2.3K | $1.2K | +$25.88 | 80% 4956-1226 (6182) |
1L 1lovejump | Diletta Cherubiniavg 64.2¢ | $279.11 | $148.43 | +$8.68 | 53% 601-530 (1131) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Diletta Cherubiniavg 84¢ | $69.6 | $70.25 | +$0.65 | 67% 23053-11450 (34503) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Mell Elizabeth Reascoavg 10¢ | $7.69 | $2.69 | -$5 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
EF efntrickCTR<$100 | Mell Elizabeth Reascoavg 16¢ | $4 | $1.13 | -$2.88 | 48% 3634-3892 (7526) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Mell Elizabeth Reascoavg 2¢ | $0.49 | $0.53 | +$0.04 | 59% 29955-20673 (50628) |
Invested
$33,755.56
Value
$34.7K
PnL
+$8.4K
Record
76%
556-178 (734)
RN1Invested
$13,525.48
Value
$9.3K
PnL
$-4.3K
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Invested
$3,605.95
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$581.77
Record
52%
13520-12365 (25885)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$2,285.75
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$25.88
Record
80%
4956-1226 (6182)
Invested
$279.11
Value
$148.43
PnL
+$8.68
Record
53%
601-530 (1131)
Invested
$69.6
Value
$70.25
PnL
+$0.65
Record
67%
23053-11450 (34503)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$7.69
Value
$2.69
PnL
-$5
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
Invested
$4
Value
$1.13
PnL
-$2.88
Record
48%
3634-3892 (7526)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.53
PnL
+$0.04
Record
59%
29955-20673 (50628)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HVAB
Diletta Cherubini — $34.7K
RN1
Diletta Cherubini — $9.3K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Diletta Cherubini — $3.0K
ZaiZoiBele
Diletta Cherubini — $1.2K
1lovejump
Diletta Cherubini — $148.43
pauleta23
Diletta Cherubini — $70.25
HRTrading
CTRMell Elizabeth Reasco — $2.69
efntrick
CTRMell Elizabeth Reasco — $1.13
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRMell Elizabeth Reasco — $0.53