Pan Pacific Open: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Maya Joint

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Kamilla Rakhimova (47%) · Kamilla Rakhimova at 74¢ · $57K held · ends Nov 6

Kamilla Rakhimova74¢Maya Joint26¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kamilla Rakhimova

Consensus Traders

Kamilla Rakhimova 47%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 73.5¢

+63% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralKamilla Rakhimova at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kamilla Rakhimova

9 of 19 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kamilla Rakhimova74%

Maya Joint27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kamilla Rakhimova9 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares61,720

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Maya Joint10 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares15,374

Combined PnL+$113.18

Kamilla Rakhimova — 47%Maya Joint — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Maya Jointavg 54¢	$13.5K	$13.6K	+$55.63	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
└ Maya Joint leg	Maya Jointavg 54¢	$10.8K	$10.7K	-$101.61
└ Kamilla Rakhimova leg	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 44¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$157.23
KK Kkunn	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 42.4¢	$14.1K	$13.2K	-$957.45	44% 226-285 (511)
RO robustmst	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 46¢	$11.4K	$10.3K	$-1.1K	47% 103-114 (217)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Maya Jointavg 59¢	$7.0K	$7.4K	+$470.15	54% 17021-14267 (31288)
└ Kamilla Rakhimova leg	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 52¢	$3.0K	$3.8K	+$728.3
└ Maya Joint leg	Maya Jointavg 59¢	$6.1K	$3.7K	-$258.15
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Maya Jointavg 56¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$26.79	38% 485-800 (1285)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Maya Jointavg 60.7¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$15.75	51% 1371-1316 (2687)
0X 0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 69¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$43.48	72% 350-139 (489)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Maya Jointavg 54.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$57.06	52% 13692-12503 (26195)
└ Maya Joint leg	Maya Jointavg 54.9¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$7.94
└ Kamilla Rakhimova leg	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 39¢	$390	$455	+$65
VeryLucky888CTR	Maya Jointavg 54¢	$844.34	$850.36	+$30.82	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
GH ghostorderCTR	Maya Jointavg 54¢	$756	$819	+$63	62% 4338-2670 (7008)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Maya Jointavg 46.5¢	$1.3K	$559.12	+$49.69	—
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR	Maya Jointavg 54¢	$375	$388.89	+$13.89	58% 214-152 (366)
0xheavy888CTR	Maya Jointavg 54¢	$272.16	$282.24	+$10.08	55% 7008-5622 (12630)
EU EulhunterCTR	Maya Jointavg 56.1¢	$226.21	$243.82	+$17.6	55% 5676-4712 (10388)
TH thestingsnake	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 64¢	$192	$193.5	+$1.5	60% 4021-2703 (6724)
ZaiZoiBele	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 44¢	$155.57	$164.41	+$8.84	80% 4997-1235 (6232)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Maya Jointavg 64.1¢	$75.64	$46.18	-$29.47	58% 18530-13607 (32137)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 46¢	$15.1	$16.45	+$1.35	86% 4948-822 (5770)
0X 0x1111111111<$100	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 58¢	$3.05	$3.39	+$0.34	61% 1757-1106 (2863)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Maya Jointavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.8	+$0.1	47% 2216-2502 (4718)
tradecraft<$100	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.43	-$0.08	51% 5947-5637 (11584)
HRTrading<$100	Kamilla Rakhimovaavg 68¢	$1.87	$1.86	-$0.01	52% 3834-3490 (7324)

RN1ARB<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$13,527.75

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$55.63

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

Both legs:

Maya Joint$10,760.4754¢-$101.61

Kamilla Rakhimova$2,767.2944¢+$157.23

Kkunn

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$14,131.44

Value

$13.2K

PnL

-$957.45

Record

44%

226-285 (511)

robustmst

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$11,399.96

Value

$10.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

47%

103-114 (217)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$6,957.63

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$470.15

Record

54%

17021-14267 (31288)

Both legs:

Kamilla Rakhimova$3,033.7652¢+$728.3

Maya Joint$6,092.3259¢-$258.15

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$3,289

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$26.79

Record

38%

485-800 (1285)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$2,198

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$15.75

Record

51%

1371-1316 (2687)

0xE71359d50Ea42c73bFf065ec47F418506A7aC9a0-1771230981470

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$43.48

Record

72%

350-139 (489)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$1,440.05

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$57.06

Record

52%

13692-12503 (26195)

Both legs:

Maya Joint$1,050.0554.9¢-$7.94

Kamilla Rakhimova$39039¢+$65

VeryLucky888CTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$844.34

Value

$850.36

PnL

+$30.82

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

ghostorderCTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$756

Value

$819

PnL

+$63

Record

62%

4338-2670 (7008)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$1,254.57

Value

$559.12

PnL

+$49.69

Record

—

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041CTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$375

Value

$388.89

PnL

+$13.89

Record

58%

214-152 (366)

0xheavy888CTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$272.16

Value

$282.24

PnL

+$10.08

Record

55%

7008-5622 (12630)

EulhunterCTR

Maya Joint

Invested

$226.21

Value

$243.82

PnL

+$17.6

Record

55%

5676-4712 (10388)

thestingsnake

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$192

Value

$193.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

60%

4021-2703 (6724)

ZaiZoiBele

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$155.57

Value

$164.41

PnL

+$8.84

Record

80%

4997-1235 (6232)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$75.64

Value

$46.18

PnL

-$29.47

Record

58%

18530-13607 (32137)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$15.1

Value

$16.45

PnL

+$1.35

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

0x1111111111<$100

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0.34

Record

61%

1757-1106 (2863)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Maya Joint

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2216-2502 (4718)

tradecraft<$100

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

5947-5637 (11584)

HRTrading<$100

Kamilla Rakhimova

Invested

$1.87

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

Research grade

NeutralKamilla Rakhimova at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kamilla Rakhimova

9 of 19 top traders (47%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kamilla Rakhimova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.