Guangzhou Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jil Teichmann

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kaitlin Quevedo (60%) · Kaitlin Quevedo at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 6

Kaitlin Quevedo60¢Jil Teichmann40¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kaitlin Quevedo

Consensus Traders

Kaitlin Quevedo 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$6.19

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 59.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralKaitlin Quevedo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kaitlin Quevedo

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kaitlin Quevedo60%

Jil Teichmann41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kaitlin Quevedo3 traders

Total Value$820.54

Total Shares1,406

Combined PnL+$4.42

Jil Teichmann2 traders

Total Value$292.6

Total Shares715

Combined PnL+$1.77

Kaitlin Quevedo — 60%Jil Teichmann — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 57.6¢	$544.76	$554.95	+$10.19	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
└ Kaitlin Quevedo leg	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 57.6¢	$375.69	$378.17	+$2.48
└ Jil Teichmann leg	Jil Teichmannavg 40.2¢	$169.07	$176.78	+$7.71
0X 0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 57¢	$500	$508.77	+$4.39	59% 216-153 (369)
RN1CTR	Jil Teichmannavg 40¢	$206.85	$209.44	+$2.59	54% 56286-48446 (104732)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 60¢	$210	$208.25	-$1.75	51% 1385-1333 (2718)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 57¢	$101.73	$103.51	+$1.78	51% 3919-3833 (7752)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jil Teichmannavg 42.4¢	$83.98	$83.16	-$0.82	58% 28383-20951 (49334)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 57.5¢	$77.5	$79	+$1.5	55% 5707-4745 (10452)
└ Kaitlin Quevedo leg	Kaitlin Quevedoavg 57.5¢	$57.5	$58	+$0.5
└ Jil Teichmann leg	Jil Teichmannavg 40¢	$20	$21	+$1

38791873984189ARB<$100

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$544.76

Value

$554.95

PnL

+$10.19

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

Both legs:

Kaitlin Quevedo$375.6957.6¢+$2.48

Jil Teichmann$169.0740.2¢+$7.71

0x84e01e855165C5d56DE153c96DCC3B9bCe727F3D-1782704499041

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$500

Value

$508.77

PnL

+$4.39

Record

59%

216-153 (369)

RN1CTR

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$206.85

Value

$209.44

PnL

+$2.59

Record

54%

56286-48446 (104732)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$210

Value

$208.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

51%

1385-1333 (2718)

GamblingAddict12345

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$101.73

Value

$103.51

PnL

+$1.78

Record

51%

3919-3833 (7752)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jil Teichmann

Invested

$83.98

Value

$83.16

PnL

-$0.82

Record

58%

28383-20951 (49334)

EulhunterARB<$100

Kaitlin Quevedo

Invested

$77.5

Value

$79

PnL

+$1.5

Record

55%

5707-4745 (10452)

Both legs:

Kaitlin Quevedo$57.557.5¢+$0.5

Jil Teichmann$2040¢+$1

Research grade

NeutralKaitlin Quevedo at 60%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kaitlin Quevedo

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kaitlin Quevedo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.