Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kaitlin Quevedo, while the market favors Lilli Tagger (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Guangzhou Open: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Lilli Tagger
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kaitlin Quevedo (60%) · Kaitlin Quevedo at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Kaitlin Quevedo
5
Kaitlin Quevedo 60%
$1.3K
$15.05
33¢ → 33.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralKaitlin Quevedo at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Lilli Tagger 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Kaitlin Quevedo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 33¢ | $990 | $990 | +$15 | 53% 5590-4952 (10542) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 33¢ | $131.16 | $133.15 | +$1.99 | 54% 590-507 (1097) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Lilli Taggeravg 66¢ | $73.05 | $73.6 | +$0.55 | 58% 41739-30322 (72061) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Kaitlin Quevedoavg 33.4¢ | $73.25 | $72.27 | -$2.07 | 58% 28550-21073 (49623) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Lilli Taggeravg 67¢ | $84 | $55.86 | -$0.42 | 56% 7097-5686 (12783) |
Invested
$990
Value
$990
PnL
+$15
Record
53%
5590-4952 (10542)
Invested
$131.16
Value
$133.15
PnL
+$1.99
Record
54%
590-507 (1097)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$73.05
Value
$73.6
PnL
+$0.55
Record
58%
41739-30322 (72061)
Invested
$73.25
Value
$72.27
PnL
-$2.07
Record
58%
28550-21073 (49623)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$84
Value
$55.86
PnL
-$0.42
Record
56%
7097-5686 (12783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.