Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Elena Pridankina vs Ekaterine Gorgodze

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Elena Pridankina (83%) · Elena Pridankina at 99¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 7

Elena Pridankina>99¢Ekaterine Gorgodze<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Elena Pridankina

Consensus Traders

Elena Pridankina 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.3K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 99.5¢

+30% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralElena Pridankina at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Elena Pridankina

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Elena Pridankina99%

Ekaterine Gorgodze1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Elena Pridankina15 traders

Total Value$18.2K

Total Shares18,649

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Ekaterine Gorgodze3 traders

Total Value$44.14

Total Shares336

Combined PnL-$19.51

Elena Pridankina — 83%Ekaterine Gorgodze — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Elena Pridankina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElena Pridankina 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpElena Pridankina 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrElena Pridankina 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedElena Pridankina 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Elena Pridankina 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Elena Pridankinaavg 75.8¢	$8.8K	$10.9K	+$2.1K	54% 56524-48715 (105239)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Elena Pridankinaavg 78¢	$4.4K	$6.1K	+$233.4	48% 881-949 (1830)
└ Elena Pridankina leg	Elena Pridankinaavg 78¢	$5.1K	$4.2K	+$884.88
└ Ekaterine Gorgodze leg	Ekaterine Gorgodzeavg 21.1¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	-$651.48
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Elena Pridankinaavg 76.2¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$307.01	52% 13771-12569 (26340)
TH thestingsnake	Elena Pridankinaavg 77.7¢	$3.1K	$2.0K	+$698.01	60% 4057-2734 (6791)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Elena Pridankinaavg 74.1¢	$540.8	$664.54	+$123.74	51% 1439-1381 (2820)
tradecraft	Elena Pridankinaavg 79¢	$588.11	$658.83	+$70.72	51% 5997-5693 (11690)
VeryLucky888	Elena Pridankinaavg 69¢	$207	$273	+$66	58% 41809-30357 (72166)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Elena Pridankinaavg 74¢	$199.99	$245.93	+$45.94	53% 3178-2809 (5987)
latvian.demon	Elena Pridankinaavg 74¢	$185	$227.5	+$42.5	54% 694-588 (1282)
IL Illiasca	Elena Pridankinaavg 97.7¢	$170	$170.4	+$0.4	65% 277-151 (428)
BI BillBenter2026	Elena Pridankinaavg 81.5¢	$124.71	$139.23	+$14.52	58% 18628-13694 (32322)
PA pauleta23<$100	Elena Pridankinaavg 79.7¢	$43.57	$43.7	+$0.13	67% 23325-11719 (35044)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Ekaterine Gorgodzeavg 30¢	$35.79	$30.12	-$5.67	53% 4456-4025 (8481)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Elena Pridankinaavg 83¢	$8.3	$9.1	+$0.8	85% 5256-898 (6154)
poshposhCTR<$100	Ekaterine Gorgodzeavg 3¢	$3.99	$7.32	+$3.33	59% 10106-7093 (17199)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Ekaterine Gorgodzeavg 19.6¢	$23.87	$6.7	-$17.17	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Elena Pridankinaavg 69¢	$5	$4.58	+$1.13	48% 2366-2607 (4973)
FA Favorite-Cave-Muscat<$100	Elena Pridankinaavg 79.8¢	$13.57	$4.55	+$1.3	68% 323-152 (475)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Elena Pridankinaavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.33	-$0.02	59% 30449-21168 (51617)

RN1

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$8,781.45

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

54%

56524-48715 (105239)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$4,379.68

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$233.4

Record

48%

881-949 (1830)

Both legs:

Elena Pridankina$5,130.778¢+$884.88

Ekaterine Gorgodze$1,089.8221.1¢-$651.48

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$2,565.62

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$307.01

Record

52%

13771-12569 (26340)

thestingsnake

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$3,059.52

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$698.01

Record

60%

4057-2734 (6791)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$540.8

Value

$664.54

PnL

+$123.74

Record

51%

1439-1381 (2820)

tradecraft

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$588.11

Value

$658.83

PnL

+$70.72

Record

51%

5997-5693 (11690)

VeryLucky888

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$207

Value

$273

PnL

+$66

Record

58%

41809-30357 (72166)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$199.99

Value

$245.93

PnL

+$45.94

Record

53%

3178-2809 (5987)

latvian.demon

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$185

Value

$227.5

PnL

+$42.5

Record

54%

694-588 (1282)

Illiasca

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$170

Value

$170.4

PnL

+$0.4

Record

65%

277-151 (428)

BillBenter2026

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$124.71

Value

$139.23

PnL

+$14.52

Record

58%

18628-13694 (32322)

pauleta23<$100

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$43.57

Value

$43.7

PnL

+$0.13

Record

67%

23325-11719 (35044)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Ekaterine Gorgodze

Invested

$35.79

Value

$30.12

PnL

-$5.67

Record

53%

4456-4025 (8481)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$8.3

Value

$9.1

PnL

+$0.8

Record

85%

5256-898 (6154)

poshposhCTR<$100

Ekaterine Gorgodze

Invested

$3.99

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$3.33

Record

59%

10106-7093 (17199)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Ekaterine Gorgodze

Invested

$23.87

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$17.17

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

ameisgoat11<$100

Elena Pridankina

Invested

Value

$4.58

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

2366-2607 (4973)

Favorite-Cave-Muscat<$100

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$13.57

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$1.3

Record

68%

323-152 (475)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Elena Pridankina

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.02

Record

59%

30449-21168 (51617)

Research grade

NeutralElena Pridankina at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).

Smart Money Signal

Elena Pridankina

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Elena Pridankina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleElena Pridankina 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpElena Pridankina 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrElena Pridankina 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedElena Pridankina 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Elena Pridankina 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Elena Pridankina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.