Queretaro: Nadia Podoroska vs Alice Rame

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Nadia Podoroska (86%) · Nadia Podoroska at 83¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 2

Nadia Podoroska83¢Alice Rame17¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Nadia Podoroska

Consensus Traders

Nadia Podoroska 86%

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

-$61.34

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 82.5¢

-7% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNadia Podoroska at 83%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nadia Podoroska

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nadia Podoroska83%

Alice Rame18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nadia Podoroska12 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares15,394

Combined PnL-$44.04

Alice Rame2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares31,759

Combined PnL-$17.29

Nadia Podoroska — 86%Alice Rame — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Nadia Podoroska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNadia Podoroska 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNadia Podoroska 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNadia Podoroska 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nadia Podoroska 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Nadia Podoroskaavg 88¢	$6.9K	$7.1K	+$195.17	54% 55509-47585 (103094)
HO HomeRunHazard	Nadia Podoroskaavg 89.6¢	$3.8K	$3.5K	-$222.77	54% 16767-14068 (30835)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Alice Rameavg 10.1¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$16.18	49% 18514-18927 (37441)
GH ghostorder	Nadia Podoroskaavg 91¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$16.3	62% 4249-2621 (6870)
ZaiZoiBele	Nadia Podoroskaavg 89.2¢	$702.83	$692.86	-$5.62	80% 4960-1226 (6186)
1L 1lovejump	Nadia Podoroskaavg 89.4¢	$725.13	$550.43	-$39.29	53% 610-537 (1147)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nadia Podoroskaavg 81.1¢	$473.34	$487.17	+$13.83	52% 13528-12376 (25904)
TH thestingsnake	Nadia Podoroskaavg 81.6¢	$432.97	$364.6	+$9.76	60% 3942-2661 (6603)
BI BillBenter2026	Nadia Podoroskaavg 84.4¢	$124.89	$133.2	+$8.31	58% 18338-13470 (31808)
0xheavy888<$100	Nadia Podoroskaavg 78¢	$42.9	$49.23	+$6.33	56% 6858-5498 (12356)
EF efntrick<$100	Nadia Podoroskaavg 86.6¢	$45.4	$47	+$1.6	48% 3641-3901 (7542)
PA pauleta23<$100	Nadia Podoroskaavg 81.9¢	$40	$43.98	+$3.98	67% 23068-11460 (34528)
HRTrading<$100	Nadia Podoroskaavg 86¢	$42.72	$43.67	+$0.95	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Alice Rameavg 11.1¢	$11.2	$10.09	-$1.11	52% 5849-5477 (11326)

RN1

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$6,876.11

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$195.17

Record

54%

55509-47585 (103094)

HomeRunHazard

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$3,754.72

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$222.77

Record

54%

16767-14068 (30835)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Alice Rame

Invested

$3,181.96

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$16.18

Record

49%

18514-18927 (37441)

ghostorder

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$1,483.3

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$16.3

Record

62%

4249-2621 (6870)

ZaiZoiBele

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$702.83

Value

$692.86

PnL

-$5.62

Record

80%

4960-1226 (6186)

1lovejump

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$725.13

Value

$550.43

PnL

-$39.29

Record

53%

610-537 (1147)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$473.34

Value

$487.17

PnL

+$13.83

Record

52%

13528-12376 (25904)

thestingsnake

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$432.97

Value

$364.6

PnL

+$9.76

Record

60%

3942-2661 (6603)

BillBenter2026

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$124.89

Value

$133.2

PnL

+$8.31

Record

58%

18338-13470 (31808)

0xheavy888<$100

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$42.9

Value

$49.23

PnL

+$6.33

Record

56%

6858-5498 (12356)

efntrick<$100

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$45.4

Value

$47

PnL

+$1.6

Record

48%

3641-3901 (7542)

pauleta23<$100

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$40

Value

$43.98

PnL

+$3.98

Record

67%

23068-11460 (34528)

HRTrading<$100

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$42.72

Value

$43.67

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Alice Rame

Invested

$11.2

Value

$10.09

PnL

-$1.11

Record

52%

5849-5477 (11326)

Research grade

Research candidateNadia Podoroska at 83%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nadia Podoroska

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Nadia Podoroska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNadia Podoroska 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNadia Podoroska 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNadia Podoroska 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nadia Podoroska 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nadia Podoroska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.