Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Carole Monnet, while the market favors Nadia Podoroska (93%). 9 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Queretaro: Nadia Podoroska vs Carole Monnet

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Carole Monnet (60%) · Carole Monnet at 6.6¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 6

Nadia Podoroska93¢Carole Monnet7¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Carole Monnet

Consensus Traders

Carole Monnet 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.5K

Combined PnL

$-11.7K

Smart Money Entry

31.7¢ → 6.6¢

-79% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCarole Monnet at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Carole Monnet

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nadia Podoroska 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Nadia Podoroska93%

Carole Monnet7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Carole Monnet9 traders

Total Value$25.2K

Total Shares72,817

Combined PnL$-13.5K

Nadia Podoroska6 traders

Total Value$12.8K

Total Shares14,030

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Carole Monnet — 60%Nadia Podoroska — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Carole Monnetavg 32.7¢	$37.0K	$22.6K	$-14.4K	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
IL Illiasca	Nadia Podoroskaavg 72.7¢	$7.0K	$8.7K	+$1.7K	65% 275-149 (424)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Carole Monnetavg 22.5¢	$14.9K	$7.5K	$-7.4K	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
└ Nadia Podoroska leg	Nadia Podoroskaavg 67.5¢	$3.5K	$4.9K	+$1.4K
└ Carole Monnet leg	Carole Monnetavg 22.5¢	$11.4K	$2.6K	$-8.8K
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nadia Podoroskaavg 71.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$52.23	52% 13740-12542 (26282)
TRCMCTR	Carole Monnetavg 19¢	$700.68	$1.4K	+$663.81	55% 3944-3179 (7123)
38 38791873984189	Nadia Podoroskaavg 75.8¢	$2.2K	$958.5	-$140.33	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
1L 1lovejump	Nadia Podoroskaavg 73.5¢	$998.66	$765.42	+$171.62	53% 655-578 (1233)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Carole Monnetavg 20¢	$387.7	$717.52	+$329.82	48% 783-852 (1635)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Nadia Podoroskaavg 67¢	$471.2	$444.7	-$26.5	51% 1415-1356 (2771)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Carole Monnetavg 36.7¢	$251.57	$253.87	+$2.3	62% 13691-8547 (22238)
VeryLucky888CTR	Carole Monnetavg 36.5¢	$368.16	$163.64	+$5.08	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
BI BillBenter2026	Nadia Podoroskaavg 83¢	$86.35	$100.36	+$14.01	58% 18599-13660 (32259)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 31¢	$62	$74	+$12	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 32.6¢	$42.82	$48.57	+$5.75	51% 5990-5687 (11677)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 34¢	$20	$20.15	+$0.15	67% 23292-11694 (34986)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Carole Monnetavg 33.6¢	$116.02	$14.68	-$73.62	60% 4049-2731 (6780)

RN1CTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$36,987.45

Value

$22.6K

PnL

$-14.4K

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

Illiasca

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$7,000

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

65%

275-149 (424)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$14,884.01

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

Both legs:

Nadia Podoroska$3,453.3667.5¢+$1.4K

Carole Monnet$11,430.6522.5¢$-8.8K

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$1,767.21

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$52.23

Record

52%

13740-12542 (26282)

TRCMCTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$700.68

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$663.81

Record

55%

3944-3179 (7123)

38791873984189

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$2,181.14

Value

$958.5

PnL

-$140.33

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

1lovejump

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$998.66

Value

$765.42

PnL

+$171.62

Record

53%

655-578 (1233)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$387.7

Value

$717.52

PnL

+$329.82

Record

48%

783-852 (1635)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$471.2

Value

$444.7

PnL

-$26.5

Record

51%

1415-1356 (2771)

LilybaeumCTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$251.57

Value

$253.87

PnL

+$2.3

Record

62%

13691-8547 (22238)

VeryLucky888CTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$368.16

Value

$163.64

PnL

+$5.08

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

BillBenter2026

Nadia Podoroska

Invested

$86.35

Value

$100.36

PnL

+$14.01

Record

58%

18599-13660 (32259)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$62

Value

$74

PnL

+$12

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$42.82

Value

$48.57

PnL

+$5.75

Record

51%

5990-5687 (11677)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$20

Value

$20.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

67%

23292-11694 (34986)

thestingsnakeCTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$116.02

Value

$14.68

PnL

-$73.62

Record

60%

4049-2731 (6780)

Research grade

AvoidCarole Monnet at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Carole Monnet

9 of 15 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nadia Podoroska 93%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Carole Monnet wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.9%

6.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1165.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

1266.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.