Queretaro: Nadia Podoroska vs Miriam Bulgaru
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nadia Podoroska (83%) · Nadia Podoroska at 100¢ · $867 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Nadia Podoroska
6
Nadia Podoroska 83%
$866.82
$768.15
85.9¢ → 100¢
+16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNadia Podoroska at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ZaiZoiBele | Nadia Podoroskaavg 81.9¢ | $5.4K | $537.58 | +$804.78 | 80% 4996-1235 (6231) |
 HRTrading | Nadia Podoroskaavg 94¢ | $227.8 | $237.27 | +$2.27 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100 | Miriam Bulgaruavg 14.8¢ | $91.86 | $36.36 | -$39.1 | 60% 4006-2695 (6701) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Nadia Podoroskaavg 94¢ | $24.44 | $24.31 | -$0.13 | 58% 18510-13598 (32108) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100 | Nadia Podoroskaavg 94¢ | $23.38 | $23.61 | +$0.23 | 52% 13670-12491 (26161) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Nadia Podoroskaavg 76¢ | $7.59 | $7.69 | +$0.1 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$5,404.81
Value
$537.58
PnL
+$804.78
Record
80%
4996-1235 (6231)
HRTradingInvested
$227.8
Value
$237.27
PnL
+$2.27
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
Invested
$91.86
Value
$36.36
PnL
-$39.1
Record
60%
4006-2695 (6701)
Invested
$24.44
Value
$24.31
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
18510-13598 (32108)
Invested
$23.38
Value
$23.61
PnL
+$0.23
Record
52%
13670-12491 (26161)
Invested
$7.59
Value
$7.69
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.