Queretaro: Dasha Plekhanova vs Miriam Bulgaru

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Miriam Bulgaru (60%) · Miriam Bulgaru at 86¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3

Dasha Plekhanova14¢Miriam Bulgaru86¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Miriam Bulgaru

Consensus Traders

Miriam Bulgaru 60%

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

$724.7

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 85.5¢

+24% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bulgaru at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bulgaru

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Dasha Plekhanova14%

Miriam Bulgaru86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Miriam Bulgaru9 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares11,682

Combined PnL+$650.08

Dasha Plekhanova6 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares13,742

Combined PnL+$74.62

Miriam Bulgaru — 60%Dasha Plekhanova — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Miriam Bulgaruavg 57¢	$3.3K	$4.0K	+$757.07	52% 5841-5466 (11307)
SA Salad1CTR	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 43.2¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$22.4	50% 90-90 (180)
ZaiZoiBele	Miriam Bulgaruavg 74.5¢	$3.6K	$3.4K	-$167.9	80% 4958-1226 (6184)
IV Ivan948CTR	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 43¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$23.68	46% 51-61 (112)
HO HomeRunHazard	Miriam Bulgaruavg 83¢	$949	$931.85	-$17.15	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18	Miriam Bulgaruavg 82¢	$674.86	$670.75	-$4.12	65% 523-276 (799)
1L 1lovejump	Miriam Bulgaruavg 68.8¢	$616.43	$336.94	+$55.08	53% 606-533 (1139)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 32.2¢	$409.62	$146.68	+$29.74	60% 3937-2658 (6595)
BI BillBenter2026	Miriam Bulgaruavg 70.3¢	$103.36	$125.69	+$22.33	58% 18334-13463 (31797)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 41¢	$123.58	$123.33	-$0.25	49% 18478-18900 (37378)
VeryLucky888	Miriam Bulgaruavg 56.5¢	$163.38	$111.15	+$5.77	58% 40527-29300 (69827)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Miriam Bulgaruavg 61¢	$100	$99.18	-$0.82	53% 3090-2717 (5807)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 42¢	$45.48	$44.39	-$1.08	62% 13590-8432 (22022)
PA pauleta23<$100	Miriam Bulgaruavg 83¢	$10	$9.82	-$0.18	67% 23062-11454 (34516)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Dasha Plekhanovaavg 38.7¢	$7.05	$7.19	+$0.14	48% 3639-3895 (7534)

tradecraft

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$3,311.2

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$757.07

Record

52%

5841-5466 (11307)

Salad1CTR

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$3,474.74

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$22.4

Record

50%

90-90 (180)

ZaiZoiBele

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$3,605.93

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$167.9

Record

80%

4958-1226 (6184)

Ivan948CTR

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$2,036.62

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$23.68

Record

46%

51-61 (112)

HomeRunHazard

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$949

Value

$931.85

PnL

-$17.15

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$674.86

Value

$670.75

PnL

-$4.12

Record

65%

523-276 (799)

1lovejump

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$616.43

Value

$336.94

PnL

+$55.08

Record

53%

606-533 (1139)

thestingsnakeCTR

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$409.62

Value

$146.68

PnL

+$29.74

Record

60%

3937-2658 (6595)

BillBenter2026

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$103.36

Value

$125.69

PnL

+$22.33

Record

58%

18334-13463 (31797)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$123.58

Value

$123.33

PnL

-$0.25

Record

49%

18478-18900 (37378)

VeryLucky888

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$163.38

Value

$111.15

PnL

+$5.77

Record

58%

40527-29300 (69827)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$100

Value

$99.18

PnL

-$0.82

Record

53%

3090-2717 (5807)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$45.48

Value

$44.39

PnL

-$1.08

Record

62%

13590-8432 (22022)

pauleta23<$100

Miriam Bulgaru

Invested

$10

Value

$9.82

PnL

-$0.18

Record

67%

23062-11454 (34516)

efntrickCTR<$100

Dasha Plekhanova

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$0.14

Record

48%

3639-3895 (7534)

Research grade

NeutralMiriam Bulgaru at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Miriam Bulgaru

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Miriam Bulgaru wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.