Sopo: Laura Pigossi vs Dalila Jakupovic

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Laura Pigossi (77%) · Laura Pigossi at 98¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 17

Laura Pigossi98¢Dalila Jakupovic2¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Laura Pigossi

Consensus Traders

Laura Pigossi 77%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.7K

Combined PnL

$108.25

Smart Money Entry

82.6¢ → 97.7¢

+18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralLaura Pigossi at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Pigossi

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Laura Pigossi98%

Dalila Jakupovic2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Laura Pigossi10 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares14,687

Combined PnL+$220.13

Dalila Jakupovic3 traders

Total Value$60.1

Total Shares2,020

Combined PnL-$111.89

Laura Pigossi — 77%Dalila Jakupovic — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Laura Pigossiavg 79.2¢	$7.2K	$6.6K	-$648.94	53% 72121-63608 (135729)
LI LightParadox	Laura Pigossiavg 83.9¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$244.62	45% 2751-3326 (6077)
TH thestingsnake	Laura Pigossiavg 84.3¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$225.7	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
MA MadridTime	Laura Pigossiavg 97.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$2.92	45% 2764-3372 (6136)
LI Limousin	Laura Pigossiavg 82.8¢	$885.31	$1.0K	+$157.96	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
SU suitcase6628	Laura Pigossiavg 96.4¢	$481.91	$484	+$2.09	57% 217-165 (382)
1L 1lovejump	Laura Pigossiavg 71¢	$293.18	$335.08	+$39.63	53% 861-758 (1619)
38 38791873984189	Laura Pigossiavg 55.3¢	$441.28	$214.2	+$148.62	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
machinelearned	Laura Pigossiavg 64.7¢	$103	$136.55	+$33.55	54% 10552-8960 (19512)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Dalila Jakupovicavg 16.3¢	$340.47	$94.75	+$48.59	58% 237-173 (410)
└ Laura Pigossi leg	Laura Pigossiavg 59.6¢	$47.56	$74.55	+$79.14
└ Dalila Jakupovic leg	Dalila Jakupovicavg 16.3¢	$50.75	$20.2	-$30.55
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Laura Pigossiavg 64.3¢	$38.75	$58.59	+$19.83	52% 6205-5726 (11931)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Dalila Jakupovicavg 4.7¢	$80.58	$41.19	-$39.38	47% 2293-2595 (4888)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Dalila Jakupovicavg 26.9¢	$89.15	$16.9	-$72.24	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
TRCMCTR<$100	Dalila Jakupovicavg 36.1¢	$2.27	$2.01	-$0.26	55% 4142-3335 (7477)

RN1

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$7,207.6

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$648.94

Record

53%

72121-63608 (135729)

LightParadox

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$2,132.98

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$244.62

Record

45%

2751-3326 (6077)

thestingsnake

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$1,790.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$225.7

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

MadridTime

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$1,428.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$2.92

Record

45%

2764-3372 (6136)

Limousin

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$885.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$157.96

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

suitcase6628

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$481.91

Value

$484

PnL

+$2.09

Record

57%

217-165 (382)

1lovejump

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$293.18

Value

$335.08

PnL

+$39.63

Record

53%

861-758 (1619)

38791873984189

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$441.28

Value

$214.2

PnL

+$148.62

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

machinelearned

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$103

Value

$136.55

PnL

+$33.55

Record

54%

10552-8960 (19512)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Dalila Jakupovic

Invested

$340.47

Value

$94.75

PnL

+$48.59

Record

58%

237-173 (410)

Both legs:

Laura Pigossi$47.5659.6¢+$79.14

Dalila Jakupovic$50.7516.3¢-$30.55

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Laura Pigossi

Invested

$38.75

Value

$58.59

PnL

+$19.83

Record

52%

6205-5726 (11931)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Dalila Jakupovic

Invested

$80.58

Value

$41.19

PnL

-$39.38

Record

47%

2293-2595 (4888)

VenusianCTR<$100

Dalila Jakupovic

Invested

$89.15

Value

$16.9

PnL

-$72.24

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

TRCMCTR<$100

Dalila Jakupovic

Invested

$2.27

Value

$2.01

PnL

-$0.26

Record

55%

4142-3335 (7477)

Research grade

NeutralLaura Pigossi at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Laura Pigossi

10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Laura Pigossi wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.