Curitiba: Rebeca Pereira vs Yasmine Kabbaj
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yasmine Kabbaj (67%) · Yasmine Kabbaj at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yasmine Kabbaj
6
Yasmine Kabbaj 67%
$3.0K
$32.53
98.1¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYasmine Kabbaj at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yasmine Kabbajavg 98.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$15.96 | 59% 44290-30654 (74944) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Yasmine Kabbajavg 97.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$15.9 | 52% 13489-12341 (25830) |
1L 1lovejump | Yasmine Kabbajavg 98.7¢ | $500.5 | $263.19 | +$2.32 | 53% 584-515 (1099) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yasmine Kabbajavg 97.2¢ | $8.29 | $7.69 | -$0.6 | 49% 18415-18835 (37250) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Rebeca Pereiraavg 0.9¢ | $1.09 | $0.06 | -$1.03 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Rebeca Pereiraavg 0.1¢ | $0.03 | $0.02 | -$0.02 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
Invested
$1,405.7
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$15.96
Record
59%
44290-30654 (74944)
Invested
$1,290.61
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$15.9
Record
52%
13489-12341 (25830)
Invested
$500.5
Value
$263.19
PnL
+$2.32
Record
53%
584-515 (1099)
Invested
$8.29
Value
$7.69
PnL
-$0.6
Record
49%
18415-18835 (37250)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$1.03
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.