Set 1 Winner: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jessica Pegula (83%) · Jessica Pegula at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 17

Jessica Pegula69¢Linda Noskova31¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jessica Pegula

Consensus Traders

Jessica Pegula 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$505.04

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 69¢

+55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJessica Pegula at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jessica Pegula69%

Linda Noskova31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jessica Pegula5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,805

Combined PnL+$487.52

Linda Noskova1 trader

Total Value$199.73

Total Shares350

Combined PnL+$17.52

Jessica Pegula — 83%Linda Noskova — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jessica Pegula. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Linda Noskova) and the top 1000 (6 on Jessica Pegula) disagree here.

ctrJessica Pegula 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLinda Noskova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Jessica Pegulaavg 46.3¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$325.82	51% 2100-2043 (4143)
MI mishipolisARB<$100	Linda Noskovaavg 57¢	$701.93	$571.3	+$88.38	43% 97-127 (224)
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 40.8¢	$253.73	$363.8	+$165.88
└ Linda Noskova leg	Linda Noskovaavg 57¢	$285	$207.5	-$77.5
VI vibing123	Jessica Pegulaavg 43¢	$344	$444	+$100	62% 1115-670 (1785)
poshposhARB<$100	Linda Noskovaavg 56.9¢	$278.89	$242.32	-$36.58	48% 621-673 (1294)
└ Linda Noskova leg	Linda Noskovaavg 56.9¢	$175.13	$127.67	-$47.45
└ Jessica Pegula leg	Jessica Pegulaavg 53¢	$103.77	$114.64	+$10.88
VeryLucky888CTR	Linda Noskovaavg 52¢	$182.21	$199.73	+$17.52	52% 836-757 (1593)
LR lryyy	Jessica Pegulaavg 37.1¢	$114.4	$138.6	+$24.2	44% 442-557 (999)
TO topdogbigboi	Jessica Pegulaavg 40.1¢	$90.83	$124.07	+$33.25	36% 558-990 (1548)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 44.2¢	$32.49	$36.74	+$4.26	42% 98-135 (233)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$1,266.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$325.82

Record

51%

2100-2043 (4143)

mishipolisARB<$100

Linda Noskova

Invested

$701.93

Value

$571.3

PnL

+$88.38

Record

43%

97-127 (224)

Both legs:

Jessica Pegula$253.7340.8¢+$165.88

Linda Noskova$28557¢-$77.5

vibing123

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$344

Value

$444

PnL

+$100

Record

62%

1115-670 (1785)

poshposhARB<$100

Linda Noskova

Invested

$278.89

Value

$242.32

PnL

-$36.58

Record

48%

621-673 (1294)

Both legs:

Linda Noskova$175.1356.9¢-$47.45

Jessica Pegula$103.7753¢+$10.88

VeryLucky888CTR

Linda Noskova

Invested

$182.21

Value

$199.73

PnL

+$17.52

Record

52%

836-757 (1593)

lryyy

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$114.4

Value

$138.6

PnL

+$24.2

Record

44%

442-557 (999)

topdogbigboi

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$90.83

Value

$124.07

PnL

+$33.25

Record

36%

558-990 (1548)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$32.49

Value

$36.74

PnL

+$4.26

Record

42%

98-135 (233)

Research grade

NeutralJessica Pegula at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Jessica Pegula. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Linda Noskova) and the top 1000 (6 on Jessica Pegula) disagree here.

ctrJessica Pegula 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedLinda Noskova 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jessica Pegula wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.