WTA Finals, Group A: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Linda Noskova (22%) · Linda Noskova at 54¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 17

Jessica Pegula47¢Linda Noskova53¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Linda Noskova

Consensus Traders

Linda Noskova 22%

Total Value

$20.5K

Combined PnL

-$58.86

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralLinda Noskova at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Linda Noskova

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jessica Pegula47%

Linda Noskova54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Linda Noskova2 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares21,073

Combined PnL+$82.71

Jessica Pegula7 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares19,909

Combined PnL-$141.57

Linda Noskova — 22%Jessica Pegula — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Linda Noskova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJessica Pegula 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Linda Noskovaavg 53¢	$9.1K	$9.2K	+$81.76	61% 956-608 (1564)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 47¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$144.4	51% 2054-1969 (4023)
00 0000.	Linda Noskovaavg 53.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0.95	32% 10-21 (31)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 46¢	$820.17	$829.09	+$8.91	39% 74-117 (191)
GC GC-PCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 46.6¢	$782.01	$780.6	-$1.42	26% 152-427 (579)
NM NM-PCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 47¢	$470	$465	-$5	59% 3534-2416 (5950)
HY hydra1248CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 46.5¢	$232.97	$230.47	-$2.51	78% 123-34 (157)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 46¢	$230	$221.84	+$2.84	52% 754-704 (1458)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 46¢	$24.38	$24.38	+$0	52% 184-170 (354)

darkumbreon88

Linda Noskova

Invested

$9,111.98

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$81.76

Record

61%

956-608 (1564)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$6,786.85

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$144.4

Record

51%

2054-1969 (4023)

0000.

Linda Noskova

Invested

$2,075

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0.95

Record

32%

10-21 (31)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$820.17

Value

$829.09

PnL

+$8.91

Record

39%

74-117 (191)

GC-PCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$782.01

Value

$780.6

PnL

-$1.42

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

NM-PCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$470

Value

$465

PnL

-$5

Record

59%

3534-2416 (5950)

hydra1248CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$232.97

Value

$230.47

PnL

-$2.51

Record

78%

123-34 (157)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$230

Value

$221.84

PnL

+$2.84

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$24.38

Value

$24.38

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

184-170 (354)

Research grade

NeutralLinda Noskova at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Linda Noskova

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Linda Noskova. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrJessica Pegula 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Linda Noskova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.