Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jessica Pegula, while the market favors Mirra Andreeva (72%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

WTA Finals, Group A: Jessica Pegula vs Mirra Andreeva

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jessica Pegula (67%) · Jessica Pegula at 28¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Jessica Pegula28¢Mirra Andreeva72¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Jessica Pegula

Consensus Traders

Jessica Pegula 67%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$6.11

Smart Money Entry

28.8¢ → 28.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidJessica Pegula at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jessica Pegula28%

Mirra Andreeva72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jessica Pegula6 traders

Total Value$959.97

Total Shares3,325

Combined PnL+$2.71

Mirra Andreeva3 traders

Total Value$241.04

Total Shares337

Combined PnL+$3.4

Jessica Pegula — 67%Mirra Andreeva — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jessica Pegula. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJessica Pegula 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 29¢	$597.69	$597.69	-$0	48% 285-304 (589)
38 38791873984189	Mirra Andreevaavg 70.3¢	$209.58	$213.07	+$3.49	48% 3195-3498 (6693)
GC GC-PCTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 28¢	$139.42	$141.91	+$2.49	37% 351-603 (954)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 28.6¢	$93.91	$95.06	+$1.15	56% 460-366 (826)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jessica Pegulaavg 29¢	$182.71	$94.21	-$1.5	53% 1335-1164 (2499)
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 28.5¢	$28.5	$29	+$0.5	51% 187-178 (365)
PA Pan9X<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 71¢	$14.2	$14.3	+$0.1	50% 1582-1604 (3186)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Mirra Andreevaavg 72¢	$13.87	$13.68	-$0.19	63% 204-122 (326)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Jessica Pegulaavg 28¢	$2.03	$2.1	+$0.07	42% 988-1357 (2345)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$597.69

Value

$597.69

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

38791873984189

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$209.58

Value

$213.07

PnL

+$3.49

Record

48%

3195-3498 (6693)

GC-PCTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$139.42

Value

$141.91

PnL

+$2.49

Record

37%

351-603 (954)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$93.91

Value

$95.06

PnL

+$1.15

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$182.71

Value

$94.21

PnL

-$1.5

Record

53%

1335-1164 (2499)

EulhunterCTR<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$28.5

Value

$29

PnL

+$0.5

Record

51%

187-178 (365)

Pan9X<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

1582-1604 (3186)

thatsabing0<$100

Mirra Andreeva

Invested

$13.87

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$0.19

Record

63%

204-122 (326)

sentrioCTR<$100

Jessica Pegula

Invested

$2.03

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

988-1357 (2345)

Research grade

AvoidJessica Pegula at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Jessica Pegula

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Mirra Andreeva 72%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Jessica Pegula. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJessica Pegula 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJessica Pegula 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Jessica Pegula 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jessica Pegula wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.