Pan Pacific Open: Alycia Parks vs Kimberly Birrell
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Kimberly Birrell (33%) · Kimberly Birrell at 62¢ · $624 held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Kimberly Birrell
3
Kimberly Birrell 33%
$624.41
$0.15
Research grade
NeutralKimberly Birrell at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IL Illiasca | Kimberly Birrellavg 62¢ | $400 | $400 | +$0 | 66% 261-136 (397) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Alycia Parksavg 38¢ | $193.05 | $193.05 | -$0 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Alycia Parksavg 38.3¢ | $31.62 | $31.36 | +$0.15 | 58% 28159-20759 (48918) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.