Osaka vs. Pohankova: Match O/U 21.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 60¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$6.5K
$762.92
43.3¢ → 59.5¢
+38% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 45¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$264.67 | 54% 16983-14234 (31217) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 43.5¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$231.74 | 58% 41092-29767 (70859) |
NO Notradecopy | Overavg 43¢ | $950 | $1.1K | +$132.56 | 49% 3903-4096 (7999) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Overavg 43¢ | $950 | $1.1K | +$132.56 | 51% 3904-3818 (7722) |
BA Bagwell306<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $4.3 | $4.9 | +$0.6 | 59% 4016-2841 (6857) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $2.42 | $3.22 | +$0.8 | 59% 9616-6616 (16232) |
Invested
$1,985.01
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$264.67
Record
54%
16983-14234 (31217)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,843.3
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$231.74
Record
58%
41092-29767 (70859)
Invested
$950
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$132.56
Record
49%
3903-4096 (7999)
Invested
$950
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$132.56
Record
51%
3904-3818 (7722)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.6
Record
59%
4016-2841 (6857)
poshposh<$100Invested
$2.42
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$0.8
Record
59%
9616-6616 (16232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.