Pan Pacific Open: Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Naomi Osaka (60%) · Naomi Osaka at 79¢ · $540 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Naomi Osaka
5
Naomi Osaka 60%
$540.25
$18.25
77.8¢ → 78.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNaomi Osaka at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Naomi Osakaavg 77.7¢ | $593.44 | $400.05 | +$7.68 | 58% 40808-29511 (70319) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Naomi Osakaavg 78¢ | $65.52 | $65.1 | -$0.42 | 56% 6920-5536 (12456) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Mia Pohankovaavg 19¢ | $45.53 | $53.92 | +$8.39 | 60% 9411-6401 (15812) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Mia Pohankovaavg 17¢ | $8.98 | $11.89 | +$2.91 | 52% 4656-4367 (9023) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Naomi Osakaavg 80¢ | $9.59 | $9.29 | -$0.3 | 49% 18637-19066 (37703) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$593.44
Value
$400.05
PnL
+$7.68
Record
58%
40808-29511 (70319)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$65.52
Value
$65.1
PnL
-$0.42
Record
56%
6920-5536 (12456)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$45.53
Value
$53.92
PnL
+$8.39
Record
60%
9411-6401 (15812)
Invested
$8.98
Value
$11.89
PnL
+$2.91
Record
52%
4656-4367 (9023)
Invested
$9.59
Value
$9.29
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
18637-19066 (37703)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.