Pan Pacific Open: Naomi Osaka vs Jasmine Paolini

16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Naomi Osaka (70%) · Naomi Osaka at 85¢ · $44K held · ends Nov 3

Naomi Osaka85¢Jasmine Paolini15¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Naomi Osaka

Consensus Traders

Naomi Osaka 70%

Total Value

$44.0K

Combined PnL

$-4.2K

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 84.5¢

+1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNaomi Osaka at 85%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Naomi Osaka

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Naomi Osaka85%

Jasmine Paolini16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Naomi Osaka16 traders

Total Value$39.6K

Total Shares43,726

Combined PnL+$692.19

Jasmine Paolini7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares44,138

Combined PnL$-4.8K

Naomi Osaka — 70%Jasmine Paolini — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Naomi Osaka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNaomi Osaka 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNaomi Osaka 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNaomi Osaka 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNaomi Osaka 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Naomi Osaka 75% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Naomi Osakaavg 86.7¢	$10.8K	$10.7K	-$36.11	54% 16724-14033 (30757)
RN1	Naomi Osakaavg 84.3¢	$9.7K	$9.3K	-$430.6	54% 55308-47341 (102649)
UP UpTheBlues	Naomi Osakaavg 88.3¢	$6.1K	$5.7K	-$406.66	59% 44229-30605 (74834)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Naomi Osakaavg 78.4¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$446.02	51% 1192-1127 (2319)
IL Illiasca	Naomi Osakaavg 74.8¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$507.12	65% 238-130 (368)
LU LuzzzerCTR	Jasmine Paoliniavg 19.4¢	$5.3K	$2.7K	$-2.6K	45% 102-123 (225)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584	Naomi Osakaavg 77¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$283.74	53% 149-134 (283)
TH thestingsnake	Naomi Osakaavg 82.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$42.78	60% 3881-2639 (6520)
1L 1lovejump	Naomi Osakaavg 80.9¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	+$117.87	53% 569-509 (1078)
VeryLucky888	Naomi Osakaavg 76.7¢	$1.0K	$921.58	+$118.96	58% 40364-29157 (69521)
OU outloudmCTR	Jasmine Paoliniavg 24.7¢	$2.3K	$910.88	$-1.3K	59% 63-44 (107)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	Jasmine Paoliniavg 23¢	$1.5K	$637.43	-$828.65	49% 38-40 (78)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Naomi Osakaavg 85¢	$313.96	$332.43	+$18.47	52% 13465-12317 (25782)
tradecraft	Naomi Osakaavg 85.9¢	$327.52	$315.08	-$12.44	52% 5806-5432 (11238)
0xheavy888	Naomi Osakaavg 77¢	$129.36	$151.2	+$15.96	56% 6834-5474 (12308)
EF efntrick	Naomi Osakaavg 84.1¢	$102.95	$105	+$2.05	48% 3603-3856 (7459)
MR MrDoucheCTR	Jasmine Paoliniavg 20¢	$200	$100	-$100	83% 1680-350 (2030)
poshposh<$100	Naomi Osakaavg 69¢	$70.66	$92.16	+$21.5	60% 9071-5988 (15059)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Naomi Osakaavg 86.5¢	$47.56	$49.5	+$1.94	58% 18288-13441 (31729)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Jasmine Paoliniavg 16.8¢	$60.91	$36.22	-$24.69	59% 29915-20638 (50553)
PA pauleta23<$100	Naomi Osakaavg 83.4¢	$20	$21.59	+$1.59	67% 23013-11416 (34429)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR<$100	Jasmine Paoliniavg 12¢	$2.65	$2.21	-$0.44	37% 467-782 (1249)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Jasmine Paoliniavg 26¢	$0.83	$0.78	-$0.05	58% 27866-20500 (48366)

HomeRunHazard

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$10,766.44

Value

$10.7K

PnL

-$36.11

Record

54%

16724-14033 (30757)

RN1

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$9,734.81

Value

$9.3K

PnL

-$430.6

Record

54%

55308-47341 (102649)

UpTheBlues

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$6,094.14

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$406.66

Record

59%

44229-30605 (74834)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$3,263.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$446.02

Record

51%

1192-1127 (2319)

Illiasca

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$2,500

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$507.12

Record

65%

238-130 (368)

LuzzzerCTR

Jasmine Paolini

Invested

$5,278.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

45%

102-123 (225)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$1,680.6

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$283.74

Record

53%

149-134 (283)

thestingsnake

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$1,781.91

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$42.78

Record

60%

3881-2639 (6520)

1lovejump

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$2,477.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$117.87

Record

53%

569-509 (1078)

VeryLucky888

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$1,000.98

Value

$921.58

PnL

+$118.96

Record

58%

40364-29157 (69521)

outloudmCTR

Jasmine Paolini

Invested

$2,252.64

Value

$910.88

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

59%

63-44 (107)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

Jasmine Paolini

Invested

$1,466.08

Value

$637.43

PnL

-$828.65

Record

49%

38-40 (78)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$313.96

Value

$332.43

PnL

+$18.47

Record

52%

13465-12317 (25782)

tradecraft

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$327.52

Value

$315.08

PnL

-$12.44

Record

52%

5806-5432 (11238)

0xheavy888

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$129.36

Value

$151.2

PnL

+$15.96

Record

56%

6834-5474 (12308)

efntrick

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$102.95

Value

$105

PnL

+$2.05

Record

48%

3603-3856 (7459)

MrDoucheCTR

Jasmine Paolini

Invested

$200

Value

$100

PnL

-$100

Record

83%

1680-350 (2030)

poshposh<$100

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$70.66

Value

$92.16

PnL

+$21.5

Record

60%

9071-5988 (15059)

BillBenter2026<$100

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$47.56

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$1.94

Record

58%

18288-13441 (31729)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Jasmine Paolini

Invested

$60.91

Value

$36.22

PnL

-$24.69

Record

59%

29915-20638 (50553)

pauleta23<$100

Naomi Osaka

Invested

$20

Value

$21.59

PnL

+$1.59

Record

67%

23013-11416 (34429)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR<$100

Jasmine Paolini

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$0.44

Record

37%

467-782 (1249)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Jasmine Paolini

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

27866-20500 (48366)

Research grade

Research candidateNaomi Osaka at 85%

ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Naomi Osaka

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Naomi Osaka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNaomi Osaka 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNaomi Osaka 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNaomi Osaka 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNaomi Osaka 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Naomi Osaka 75% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Naomi Osaka wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.1%

84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.