Chennai Open, Qualification: Kyoka Okamura vs Momoko Kobori

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kyoka Okamura (63%) · Kyoka Okamura at 57¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 8

Kyoka Okamura57¢Momoko Kobori43¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kyoka Okamura

Consensus Traders

Kyoka Okamura 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.5K

Combined PnL

-$2.24

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKyoka Okamura at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kyoka Okamura

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Kyoka Okamura57%

Momoko Kobori43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kyoka Okamura5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,365

Combined PnL-$617.85

Momoko Kobori3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,864

Combined PnL+$615.61

Kyoka Okamura — 63%Momoko Kobori — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 60.1¢	$31.5K	$28.4K	$-3.1K	54% 57130-49397 (106527)
└ Kyoka Okamura leg	Kyoka Okamuraavg 60.1¢	$18.3K	$19.6K	+$1.3K
└ Momoko Kobori leg	Momoko Koboriavg 53.5¢	$13.2K	$8.8K	$-4.5K
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 48.6¢	$6.5K	$6.7K	+$201.4	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
└ Kyoka Okamura leg	Kyoka Okamuraavg 48.6¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$657.08
└ Momoko Kobori leg	Momoko Koboriavg 50.4¢	$2.9K	$2.4K	-$455.67
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 51.3¢	$5.7K	$5.7K	+$81.29	52% 13920-12693 (26613)
└ Kyoka Okamura leg	Kyoka Okamuraavg 51.3¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$313.63
└ Momoko Kobori leg	Momoko Koboriavg 47.8¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$232.34
88M	Kyoka Okamuraavg 51.3¢	$2.6K	$2.0K	-$156.24	42% 792-1087 (1879)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Momoko Koboriavg 30¢	$788.54	$1.4K	+$629.48	72% 6826-2619 (9445)
tradecraft	Kyoka Okamuraavg 69.4¢	$1.0K	$574.23	-$460.89	51% 6065-5785 (11850)
TH thestingsnake	Kyoka Okamuraavg 60.4¢	$482.88	$469.25	+$4.71	60% 4095-2761 (6856)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Momoko Koboriavg 48¢	$105.73	$98.02	-$7.71	59% 30657-21368 (52025)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Momoko Koboriavg 56¢	$20	$15.95	-$6.16	67% 23456-11814 (35270)
HRTrading<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 68.4¢	$20.92	$15.3	-$5.62	53% 5577-5013 (10590)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Kyoka Okamuraavg 63.5¢	$7.85	$6.45	+$0.2	85% 5860-996 (6856)

RN1ARB<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$31,513.65

Value

$28.4K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

54%

57130-49397 (106527)

Both legs:

Kyoka Okamura$18,305.3260.1¢+$1.3K

Momoko Kobori$13,208.3353.5¢$-4.5K

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$6,485.86

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$201.4

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

Both legs:

Kyoka Okamura$3,590.5148.6¢+$657.08

Momoko Kobori$2,895.3550.4¢-$455.67

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$5,660.35

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$81.29

Record

52%

13920-12693 (26613)

Both legs:

Kyoka Okamura$3,071.3851.3¢+$313.63

Momoko Kobori$2,588.9747.8¢-$232.34

88M

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$2,607.36

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$156.24

Record

42%

792-1087 (1879)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Momoko Kobori

Invested

$788.54

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$629.48

Record

72%

6826-2619 (9445)

tradecraft

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$1,035.12

Value

$574.23

PnL

-$460.89

Record

51%

6065-5785 (11850)

thestingsnake

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$482.88

Value

$469.25

PnL

+$4.71

Record

60%

4095-2761 (6856)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Momoko Kobori

Invested

$105.73

Value

$98.02

PnL

-$7.71

Record

59%

30657-21368 (52025)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Momoko Kobori

Invested

$20

Value

$15.95

PnL

-$6.16

Record

67%

23456-11814 (35270)

HRTrading<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$20.92

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$5.62

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Kyoka Okamura

Invested

$7.85

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$0.2

Record

85%

5860-996 (6856)

Research grade

NeutralKyoka Okamura at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Kyoka Okamura

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kyoka Okamura wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.