Chennai Open, Qualification: Viktoria Morvayova vs Weronika Falkowska

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Weronika Falkowska (78%) · Weronika Falkowska at 73¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 8

Viktoria Morvayova28¢Weronika Falkowska72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Weronika Falkowska

Consensus Traders

Weronika Falkowska 78%

Total Value

$27.1K

Combined PnL

-$407.17

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 72.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralWeronika Falkowska at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Weronika Falkowska

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Viktoria Morvayova28%

Weronika Falkowska73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Weronika Falkowska7 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares35,006

Combined PnL-$407.46

Viktoria Morvayova2 traders

Total Value$1.54

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$0.28

Weronika Falkowska — 78%Viktoria Morvayova — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Weronika Falkowska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWeronika Falkowska 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpViktoria Morvayova 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrWeronika Falkowska 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Weronika Falkowska 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Weronika Falkowskaavg 74.3¢	$18.9K	$18.7K	-$208.08	54% 57130-49397 (106527)
UP UpTheBlues	Weronika Falkowskaavg 79.7¢	$4.5K	$4.1K	-$446.63	59% 46853-33124 (79977)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Weronika Falkowskaavg 74.3¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$91.76	52% 13920-12693 (26613)
ComingBack	Weronika Falkowskaavg 72.6¢	$600	$702.12	+$102.12	61% 3964-2495 (6459)
TH thestingsnake	Weronika Falkowskaavg 70.3¢	$710.39	$429.59	+$53.35	60% 4095-2761 (6856)
PA pauleta23<$100	Weronika Falkowskaavg 78.1¢	$37	$34.9	-$2.58	67% 23456-11814 (35270)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Weronika Falkowskaavg 59¢	$5.9	$8.5	+$2.6	85% 5860-996 (6856)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Viktoria Morvayovaavg 26¢	$1.04	$1.1	+$0.06	53% 5577-5013 (10590)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Viktoria Morvayovaavg 12¢	$0.22	$0.44	+$0.22	48% 8915-9527 (18442)

RN1

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$18,930

Value

$18.7K

PnL

-$208.08

Record

54%

57130-49397 (106527)

UpTheBlues

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$4,539.96

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$446.63

Record

59%

46853-33124 (79977)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$3,009.64

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$91.76

Record

52%

13920-12693 (26613)

ComingBack

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$600

Value

$702.12

PnL

+$102.12

Record

61%

3964-2495 (6459)

thestingsnake

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$710.39

Value

$429.59

PnL

+$53.35

Record

60%

4095-2761 (6856)

pauleta23<$100

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$37

Value

$34.9

PnL

-$2.58

Record

67%

23456-11814 (35270)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Weronika Falkowska

Invested

$5.9

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$2.6

Record

85%

5860-996 (6856)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Viktoria Morvayova

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

5577-5013 (10590)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Viktoria Morvayova

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.44

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

8915-9527 (18442)

Research grade

NeutralWeronika Falkowska at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Weronika Falkowska

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Weronika Falkowska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWeronika Falkowska 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpViktoria Morvayova 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrWeronika Falkowska 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Weronika Falkowska 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Weronika Falkowska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.