Courmayeur: Robin Montgomery vs Lisa Pigato

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Robin Montgomery (80%) · Robin Montgomery at 71¢ · $207 held · ends Nov 3

Robin Montgomery71¢Lisa Pigato29¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Robin Montgomery

Consensus Traders

Robin Montgomery 80%

Total Value

$206.69

Combined PnL

-$9.2

Smart Money Entry

70.3¢ → 70.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRobin Montgomery at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Robin Montgomery

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Robin Montgomery71%

Lisa Pigato30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Robin Montgomery4 traders

Total Value$190.75

Total Shares271

Combined PnL-$12.47

Lisa Pigato1 trader

Total Value$15.94

Total Shares44

Combined PnL+$3.27

Robin Montgomery — 80%Lisa Pigato — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Robin Montgomeryavg 71¢	$137.05	$125.73	-$11.33	56% 6908-5524 (12432)
VeryLucky888<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 70¢	$38.32	$38.61	+$0.29	58% 40740-29467 (70207)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 67.5¢	$24.35	$22.89	-$1.46	49% 18592-19012 (37604)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Lisa Pigatoavg 29¢	$12.66	$15.94	+$3.27	58% 28114-20722 (48836)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Robin Montgomeryavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.53	+$0.02	47% 2037-2342 (4379)

0xheavy888

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$137.05

Value

$125.73

PnL

-$11.33

Record

56%

6908-5524 (12432)

VeryLucky888<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$38.32

Value

$38.61

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

40740-29467 (70207)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$24.35

Value

$22.89

PnL

-$1.46

Record

49%

18592-19012 (37604)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Lisa Pigato

Invested

$12.66

Value

$15.94

PnL

+$3.27

Record

58%

28114-20722 (48836)

ameisgoat11<$100

Robin Montgomery

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

2037-2342 (4379)

Research grade

NeutralRobin Montgomery at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Robin Montgomery

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Robin Montgomery wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.