Sopo: Carole Monnet vs Leyre Romero Gormaz

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Leyre Romero Gormaz (57%) · Leyre Romero Gormaz at 65¢ · $836 held · ends Nov 17

Carole Monnet36¢Leyre Romero Gormaz64¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Consensus Traders

Leyre Romero Gormaz 57%

Total Value

$835.98

Combined PnL

$6.88

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Carole Monnet36%

Leyre Romero Gormaz65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Leyre Romero Gormaz4 traders

Total Value$428.24

Total Shares664

Combined PnL+$3.2

Carole Monnet3 traders

Total Value$407.74

Total Shares1,094

Combined PnL+$3.68

Leyre Romero Gormaz — 57%Carole Monnet — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Leyre Romero Gormaz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carole Monnet) and the top 1000 (6 on Leyre Romero Gormaz) disagree here.

sharpLeyre Romero Gormaz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCarole Monnet 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCarole Monnet 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Leyre Romero Gormaz 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 64¢	$352	$354.75	+$2.75	57% 103-79 (182)
VE VenusianCTR	Carole Monnetavg 36¢	$318.09	$313.67	-$4.42	24% 205-642 (847)
VeryLucky888CTR	Carole Monnetavg 34.5¢	$226.2	$60.18	+$8.57	48% 218-232 (450)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 64¢	$53.24	$53.65	+$0.42	61% 891-567 (1458)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Carole Monnetavg 36¢	$34.37	$33.89	-$0.48	25% 204-624 (828)
PA Pan9X<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 64¢	$14.63	$14.74	+$0.11	48% 409-445 (854)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Leyre Romero Gormazavg 65¢	$5.18	$5.1	-$0.08	35% 171-317 (488)

0xheavy888

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$352

Value

$354.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

57%

103-79 (182)

VenusianCTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$318.09

Value

$313.67

PnL

-$4.42

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

VeryLucky888CTR

Carole Monnet

Invested

$226.2

Value

$60.18

PnL

+$8.57

Record

48%

218-232 (450)

darkumbreon88<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$53.24

Value

$53.65

PnL

+$0.42

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Carole Monnet

Invested

$34.37

Value

$33.89

PnL

-$0.48

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

Pan9X<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$14.63

Value

$14.74

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

409-445 (854)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Leyre Romero Gormaz

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.08

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

Research grade

NeutralLeyre Romero Gormaz at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Leyre Romero Gormaz

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Leyre Romero Gormaz. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Carole Monnet) and the top 1000 (6 on Leyre Romero Gormaz) disagree here.

sharpLeyre Romero Gormaz 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCarole Monnet 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedCarole Monnet 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Leyre Romero Gormaz 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Leyre Romero Gormaz wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.