Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rinko Matsuda, while the market favors Momoko Kobori (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Chennai Open, Qualification: Rinko Matsuda vs Momoko Kobori

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rinko Matsuda (78%) · Rinko Matsuda at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Rinko Matsuda<1¢Momoko Kobori>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rinko Matsuda

Consensus Traders

Rinko Matsuda 78%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidRinko Matsuda at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rinko Matsuda

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Momoko Kobori 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rinko Matsuda0%

Momoko Kobori100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Momoko Kobori2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,182

Combined PnL+$19.86

Rinko Matsuda7 traders

Total Value$168.41

Total Shares3,426

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Momoko Kobori — 22%Rinko Matsuda — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Momoko Koboriavg 86.4¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$12.93	52% 13782-12582 (26364)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Rinko Matsudaavg 49¢	$324	$166.86	+$8.1	48% 920-988 (1908)
BI BillBenter2026	Momoko Koboriavg 76.7¢	$108.02	$140.82	+$32.8	58% 18650-13710 (32360)
tradecraftCTR	Rinko Matsudaavg 55.9¢	$1.1K	$1	$-1.1K	51% 6003-5696 (11699)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Rinko Matsudaavg 49.5¢	$498.76	$0.41	-$408.64	60% 4065-2738 (6803)
TRCMCTR	Rinko Matsudaavg 56¢	$123.89	$0.11	-$123.78	55% 3948-3180 (7128)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Rinko Matsudaavg 2¢	$1.03	$0.03	-$1	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Rinko Matsudaavg 59¢	$5.9	$0.01	-$5.9	85% 5310-912 (6222)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Rinko Matsudaavg 14¢	$0.33	$0	-$0.32	49% 7958-8291 (16249)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Momoko Kobori

Invested

$1,054.32

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$12.93

Record

52%

13782-12582 (26364)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$324

Value

$166.86

PnL

+$8.1

Record

48%

920-988 (1908)

BillBenter2026

Momoko Kobori

Invested

$108.02

Value

$140.82

PnL

+$32.8

Record

58%

18650-13710 (32360)

tradecraftCTR

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$1,120.62

Value

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

6003-5696 (11699)

thestingsnakeCTR

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$498.76

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$408.64

Record

60%

4065-2738 (6803)

TRCMCTR

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$123.89

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$123.78

Record

55%

3948-3180 (7128)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$5.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.9

Record

85%

5310-912 (6222)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Rinko Matsuda

Invested

$0.33

Value

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

Research grade

AvoidRinko Matsuda at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Rinko Matsuda

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Momoko Kobori 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rinko Matsuda wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.