Queretaro: Tatjana Maria vs Valeriya Strakhova

16 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Tatjana Maria (80%) · Tatjana Maria at 100¢ · $164K held · ends Nov 6

Tatjana Maria>99¢Valeriya Strakhova<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tatjana Maria

Consensus Traders

Tatjana Maria 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$164.3K

Combined PnL

$10.3K

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralTatjana Maria at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tatjana Maria

16 of 20 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Tatjana Maria100%

Valeriya Strakhova0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tatjana Maria16 traders

Total Value$150.7K

Total Shares159,704

Combined PnL+$10.3K

Valeriya Strakhova4 traders

Total Value$467.28

Total Shares2,541

Combined PnL-$24.21

Tatjana Maria — 80%Valeriya Strakhova — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Tatjana Maria. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTatjana Maria 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTatjana Maria 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTatjana Maria 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTatjana Maria 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Tatjana Maria 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LhordGryffin	Tatjana Mariaavg 99.9¢	$40.2K	$40.2K	+$20.1	99% 1130-12 (1142)
MR MrDouche	Tatjana Mariaavg 80.5¢	$34.7K	$36.5K	+$1.7K	82% 1687-358 (2045)
RN1	Tatjana Mariaavg 65.6¢	$29.8K	$35.3K	+$5.5K	54% 56351-48500 (104851)
UP UpTheBlues	Tatjana Mariaavg 84.9¢	$27.7K	$29.4K	+$1.7K	59% 45388-31736 (77124)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 39.1¢	$27.1K	$12.9K	$-14.2K	49% 19022-19422 (38444)
└ Valeriya Strakhova leg	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 39.1¢	$24.0K	$9.5K	$-14.5K
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 77.7¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$272.94
tradecraft	Tatjana Mariaavg 53.1¢	$1.8K	$2.8K	+$1.0K	51% 5985-5681 (11666)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Tatjana Mariaavg 75.7¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$41.01	52% 13735-12534 (26269)
38 38791873984189	Tatjana Mariaavg 83¢	$6.2K	$2.2K	-$125.94	46% 8032-9481 (17513)
TH thestingsnake	Tatjana Mariaavg 75.1¢	$1.3K	$894.16	+$463.84	60% 4045-2729 (6774)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 18.7¢	$371.36	$388.01	+$16.65	48% 776-842 (1618)
VeryLucky888	Tatjana Mariaavg 88¢	$380.86	$367.08	-$8.33	58% 41528-30164 (71692)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 80.9¢	$1.1K	$220.86	+$18.19	53% 655-576 (1231)
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 80.9¢	$117.71	$117.12	+$35.47
└ Valeriya Strakhova leg	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 18.6¢	$99.02	$103.74	-$17.28
BI BillBenter2026	Tatjana Mariaavg 89.2¢	$136.85	$132.36	-$4.49	58% 18592-13652 (32244)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 22.4¢	$116.3	$75.29	-$41.01	38% 3225-5275 (8500)
HRTrading<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 92.6¢	$36.15	$39.01	+$2.86	52% 4041-3673 (7714)
PA pauleta23<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 60¢	$10	$14.33	+$4.33	67% 23282-11687 (34969)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 65¢	$9.1	$10	+$0.9	51% 1408-1352 (2760)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 89.5¢	$8.95	$8.6	-$0.2	47% 2277-2560 (4837)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 80¢	$8	$8.6	+$0.6	85% 5114-869 (5983)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 14¢	$4.2	$3.75	-$0.45	53% 3171-2793 (5964)
FL flatbarrel<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 90¢	$1.66	$1.65	-$0.01	58% 2747-1970 (4717)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Valeriya Strakhovaavg 12¢	$3.6	$0.23	+$0.6	56% 1839-1435 (3274)

LhordGryffin

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$40,162.38

Value

$40.2K

PnL

+$20.1

Record

99%

1130-12 (1142)

MrDouche

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$34,736.69

Value

$36.5K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

82%

1687-358 (2045)

RN1

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$29,839.97

Value

$35.3K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

54%

56351-48500 (104851)

UpTheBlues

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$27,723.13

Value

$29.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

59%

45388-31736 (77124)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Valeriya Strakhova

Invested

$27,113.76

Value

$12.9K

PnL

$-14.2K

Record

49%

19022-19422 (38444)

Both legs:

Valeriya Strakhova$23,983.6939.1¢$-14.5K

Tatjana Maria$3,130.0777.7¢+$272.94

tradecraft

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$1,797.59

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

51%

5985-5681 (11666)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$2,745.37

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$41.01

Record

52%

13735-12534 (26269)

38791873984189

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$6,227.78

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$125.94

Record

46%

8032-9481 (17513)

thestingsnake

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$1,270.16

Value

$894.16

PnL

+$463.84

Record

60%

4045-2729 (6774)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Valeriya Strakhova

Invested

$371.36

Value

$388.01

PnL

+$16.65

Record

48%

776-842 (1618)

VeryLucky888

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$380.86

Value

$367.08

PnL

-$8.33

Record

58%

41528-30164 (71692)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$1,130.2

Value

$220.86

PnL

+$18.19

Record

53%

655-576 (1231)

Both legs:

Tatjana Maria$117.7180.9¢+$35.47

Valeriya Strakhova$99.0218.6¢-$17.28

BillBenter2026

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$136.85

Value

$132.36

PnL

-$4.49

Record

58%

18592-13652 (32244)

topdogbigboiCTR

Valeriya Strakhova

Invested

$116.3

Value

$75.29

PnL

-$41.01

Record

38%

3225-5275 (8500)

HRTrading<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$36.15

Value

$39.01

PnL

+$2.86

Record

52%

4041-3673 (7714)

pauleta23<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$10

Value

$14.33

PnL

+$4.33

Record

67%

23282-11687 (34969)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$9.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.9

Record

51%

1408-1352 (2760)

ameisgoat11<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$8.95

Value

$8.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

2277-2560 (4837)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

85%

5114-869 (5983)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Valeriya Strakhova

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

3171-2793 (5964)

flatbarrel<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

2747-1970 (4717)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Valeriya Strakhova

Invested

$3.6

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0.6

Record

56%

1839-1435 (3274)

Research grade

NeutralTatjana Maria at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Tatjana Maria

16 of 20 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Tatjana Maria. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTatjana Maria 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTatjana Maria 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTatjana Maria 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedTatjana Maria 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Tatjana Maria 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tatjana Maria wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.