Courmayeur: Laura Mair vs Katarina Zavatska

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Katarina Zavatska (62%) · Katarina Zavatska at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3

Laura Mair14¢Katarina Zavatska86¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Katarina Zavatska

Consensus Traders

Katarina Zavatska 62%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$227.96

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 86¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralKatarina Zavatska at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Katarina Zavatska

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Laura Mair14%

Katarina Zavatska86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Katarina Zavatska8 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,332

Combined PnL-$228.8

Laura Mair5 traders

Total Value$183.42

Total Shares1,075

Combined PnL+$0.83

Katarina Zavatska — 62%Laura Mair — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Katarina Zavatska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKatarina Zavatska 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKatarina Zavatska 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKatarina Zavatska 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Katarina Zavatska 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Katarina Zavatskaavg 82.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$6.12	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
HO HomeRunHazard	Katarina Zavatskaavg 91¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$170.31	54% 16864-14141 (31005)
1L 1lovejump	Katarina Zavatskaavg 86.6¢	$1.3K	$849.94	-$33.96	53% 622-545 (1167)
TH thestingsnake	Katarina Zavatskaavg 87.6¢	$1.2K	$790.08	-$14.61	60% 3963-2663 (6626)
VeryLucky888	Katarina Zavatskaavg 81.2¢	$112.8	$116.66	+$0.39	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
RN1<$100	Katarina Zavatskaavg 80.3¢	$73.34	$72.62	-$0.72	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Laura Mairavg 11.3¢	$53.08	$66.91	+$13.83	52% 5872-5504 (11376)
PA pauleta23<$100	Katarina Zavatskaavg 84.1¢	$50	$46.67	-$3.33	67% 23105-11508 (34613)
TRCMCTR<$100	Laura Mairavg 16¢	$48	$45	-$3	55% 3914-3141 (7055)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Laura Mairavg 19¢	$52.77	$41.66	-$11.11	49% 18595-19019 (37614)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Laura Mairavg 16¢	$27.84	$27.6	-$0.24	52% 13552-12399 (25951)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Katarina Zavatskaavg 81¢	$4.05	$3.93	-$0.12	47% 2041-2345 (4386)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Laura Mairavg 6¢	$0.9	$2.25	+$1.35	48% 3652-3914 (7566)

UpTheBlues

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$1,026.84

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$6.12

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

HomeRunHazard

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$1,176.51

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$170.31

Record

54%

16864-14141 (31005)

1lovejump

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$1,318.19

Value

$849.94

PnL

-$33.96

Record

53%

622-545 (1167)

thestingsnake

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$1,206.26

Value

$790.08

PnL

-$14.61

Record

60%

3963-2663 (6626)

VeryLucky888

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$112.8

Value

$116.66

PnL

+$0.39

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

RN1<$100

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$73.34

Value

$72.62

PnL

-$0.72

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Laura Mair

Invested

$53.08

Value

$66.91

PnL

+$13.83

Record

52%

5872-5504 (11376)

pauleta23<$100

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$50

Value

$46.67

PnL

-$3.33

Record

67%

23105-11508 (34613)

TRCMCTR<$100

Laura Mair

Invested

$48

Value

$45

PnL

-$3

Record

55%

3914-3141 (7055)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Laura Mair

Invested

$52.77

Value

$41.66

PnL

-$11.11

Record

49%

18595-19019 (37614)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Laura Mair

Invested

$27.84

Value

$27.6

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

13552-12399 (25951)

ameisgoat11<$100

Katarina Zavatska

Invested

$4.05

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.12

Record

47%

2041-2345 (4386)

efntrickCTR<$100

Laura Mair

Invested

$0.9

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$1.35

Record

48%

3652-3914 (7566)

Research grade

NeutralKatarina Zavatska at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Katarina Zavatska

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Katarina Zavatska. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleKatarina Zavatska 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKatarina Zavatska 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedKatarina Zavatska 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Katarina Zavatska 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Katarina Zavatska wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.6%

86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.