Guangzhou Open: Claire Liu vs Katerina Siniakova
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Katerina Siniakova (67%) · Katerina Siniakova at 67¢ · $854 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Katerina Siniakova
6
Katerina Siniakova 67%
$853.69
$16.13
67.3¢ → 66.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralKaterina Siniakova at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Katerina Siniakovaavg 67.2¢ | $424.43 | $421.38 | +$1.88 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Claire Liuavg 30.2¢ | $140.76 | $155.94 | +$15.18 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 0xheavy888 | Katerina Siniakovaavg 66.9¢ | $155.12 | $154.28 | -$0.84 | 56% 6915-5530 (12445) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Katerina Siniakovaavg 69¢ | $78.69 | $76.98 | -$1.71 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Claire Liuavg 31.2¢ | $40.14 | $41.78 | +$1.64 | 62% 13616-8455 (22071) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Katerina Siniakovaavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.33 | -$0.02 | 47% 2056-2353 (4409) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$424.43
Value
$421.38
PnL
+$1.88
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
Invested
$140.76
Value
$155.94
PnL
+$15.18
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
0xheavy888Invested
$155.12
Value
$154.28
PnL
-$0.84
Record
56%
6915-5530 (12445)
Invested
$78.69
Value
$76.98
PnL
-$1.71
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
Invested
$40.14
Value
$41.78
PnL
+$1.64
Record
62%
13616-8455 (22071)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.02
Record
47%
2056-2353 (4409)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.