Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Ching Laam Lai vs Carol Young Suh Lee
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Carol Young Suh Lee (80%) · Carol Young Suh Lee at 100¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7
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Neutral
Carol Young Suh Lee
5
Carol Young Suh Lee 80%
$10.2K
$22.89
99¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralCarol Young Suh Lee at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 99.1¢ | $7.6K | $7.5K | -$123.1 | 54% 56524-48715 (105239) |
SE sentrio | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 99.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$21.13 | 50% 24916-24612 (49528) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 99.1¢ | $892.39 | $889.99 | -$2.4 | 52% 13771-12569 (26340) |
 poshposh | Carol Young Suh Leeavg 96.7¢ | $301.5 | $307.5 | +$6 | 59% 10106-7093 (17199) |
OM omoi0i0CTR | Ching Laam Laiavg 0.9¢ | $92.33 | $255.85 | +$163.53 | 65% 1505-809 (2314) |
RN1Invested
$7,624.75
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$123.1
Record
54%
56524-48715 (105239)
Invested
$1,308.92
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$21.13
Record
50%
24916-24612 (49528)
Invested
$892.39
Value
$889.99
PnL
-$2.4
Record
52%
13771-12569 (26340)
poshposhInvested
$301.5
Value
$307.5
PnL
+$6
Record
59%
10106-7093 (17199)
Invested
$92.33
Value
$255.85
PnL
+$163.53
Record
65%
1505-809 (2314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.