Guangzhou Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Janice Tjen

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Janice Tjen (64%) · Janice Tjen at 100¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 3

Polina Kudermetova<1¢Janice Tjen>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Janice Tjen

Consensus Traders

Janice Tjen 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 100¢

+31% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralJanice Tjen at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Janice Tjen

9 of 14 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Polina Kudermetova0%

Janice Tjen100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Janice Tjen9 traders

Total Value$23.3K

Total Shares29,755

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Polina Kudermetova5 traders

Total Value$117.58

Total Shares2,315

Combined PnL-$80.22

Janice Tjen — 64%Polina Kudermetova — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Janice Tjenavg 95.1¢	$7.1K	$5.9K	$-1.2K	54% 16724-14033 (30757)
MO Momo63	Janice Tjenavg 92.7¢	$5.4K	$5.8K	+$324.79	93% 788-57 (845)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Janice Tjenavg 57¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	-$35.09	65% 105-57 (162)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Janice Tjenavg 57¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$34.48	53% 298-262 (560)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Janice Tjenavg 99.2¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$188.57	52% 13465-12317 (25782)
1L 1lovejump	Janice Tjenavg 89.5¢	$2.6K	$646.79	-$323.23	53% 569-509 (1078)
HRTrading	Janice Tjenavg 97¢	$472.12	$480.68	+$8.56	54% 2548-2180 (4728)
VeryLucky888	Janice Tjenavg 59¢	$468.51	$411.48	+$14.2	58% 40364-29157 (69521)
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Janice Tjenavg 79¢	$303.9	$176.25	-$3.6	60% 3881-2639 (6520)
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 79¢	$118.5	$134.25	+$20.25
└ Polina Kudermetova leg	Polina Kudermetovaavg 16.5¢	$66.07	$42	-$23.85
RN1ARB<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 39.8¢	$1.9K	$109.08	$-1.8K	54% 55308-47341 (102649)
└ Polina Kudermetova leg	Polina Kudermetovaavg 39.8¢	$1.8K	$80.58	$-1.8K
└ Janice Tjen leg	Janice Tjenavg 99.1¢	$28.75	$28.5	-$0.25
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 40¢	$75.43	$73.54	-$1.89	51% 836-789 (1625)
PA pauleta23<$100	Janice Tjenavg 89¢	$30	$29.16	-$0.84	67% 23013-11416 (34429)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 40¢	$23.73	$23.14	-$0.59	62% 13573-8396 (21969)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 10¢	$10	$10.5	+$0.5	52% 5806-5432 (11238)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 20¢	$12.56	$9.44	-$3.12	48% 3603-3856 (7459)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Polina Kudermetovaavg 3.9¢	$76.09	$0.96	-$75.13	59% 44229-30605 (74834)

HomeRunHazard

Janice Tjen

Invested

$7,118.84

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

54%

16724-14033 (30757)

Momo63

Janice Tjen

Invested

$5,440.52

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$324.79

Record

93%

788-57 (845)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Janice Tjen

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$35.09

Record

65%

105-57 (162)

oxe78sh4w98

Janice Tjen

Invested

$3,931.03

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$34.48

Record

53%

298-262 (560)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Janice Tjen

Invested

$2,386.59

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$188.57

Record

52%

13465-12317 (25782)

1lovejump

Janice Tjen

Invested

$2,645.16

Value

$646.79

PnL

-$323.23

Record

53%

569-509 (1078)

HRTrading

Janice Tjen

Invested

$472.12

Value

$480.68

PnL

+$8.56

Record

54%

2548-2180 (4728)

VeryLucky888

Janice Tjen

Invested

$468.51

Value

$411.48

PnL

+$14.2

Record

58%

40364-29157 (69521)

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$303.9

Value

$176.25

PnL

-$3.6

Record

60%

3881-2639 (6520)

Both legs:

Janice Tjen$118.579¢+$20.25

Polina Kudermetova$66.0716.5¢-$23.85

RN1ARB<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$1,861.79

Value

$109.08

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

54%

55308-47341 (102649)

Both legs:

Polina Kudermetova$1,833.0439.8¢$-1.8K

Janice Tjen$28.7599.1¢-$0.25

GamblingOdysseyCTR<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$75.43

Value

$73.54

PnL

-$1.89

Record

51%

836-789 (1625)

pauleta23<$100

Janice Tjen

Invested

$30

Value

$29.16

PnL

-$0.84

Record

67%

23013-11416 (34429)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$23.73

Value

$23.14

PnL

-$0.59

Record

62%

13573-8396 (21969)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$10

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

5806-5432 (11238)

efntrickCTR<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$12.56

Value

$9.44

PnL

-$3.12

Record

48%

3603-3856 (7459)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Polina Kudermetova

Invested

$76.09

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$75.13

Record

59%

44229-30605 (74834)

Research grade

NeutralJanice Tjen at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Janice Tjen

9 of 14 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Janice Tjen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.