Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lisa Pigato, while the market favors Martyna Kubka (56%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Courmayeur: Martyna Kubka vs Lisa Pigato
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Lisa Pigato (25%) · Lisa Pigato at 44¢ · $856 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Lisa Pigato
4
Lisa Pigato 25%
$855.97
$2.45
Research grade
NeutralLisa Pigato at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Martyna Kubka 56%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL olivereaCTR | Lisa Pigatoavg 44¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 59% 308-212 (520) |
 VeryLucky888 | Martyna Kubkaavg 56¢ | $290.21 | $217.01 | +$1.31 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
 0xheavy888 | Martyna Kubkaavg 56¢ | $240 | $135.6 | +$1.2 | 55% 6989-5609 (12598) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Martyna Kubkaavg 57¢ | $3.42 | $3.36 | -$0.06 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
308-212 (520)
VeryLucky888Invested
$290.21
Value
$217.01
PnL
+$1.31
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
0xheavy888Invested
$240
Value
$135.6
PnL
+$1.2
Record
55%
6989-5609 (12598)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
$3.36
PnL
-$0.06
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.