Courmayeur: Danka Kovinic vs Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Noma Noha Akugue (69%) · Noma Noha Akugue at 74¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2

Danka Kovinic27¢Noma Noha Akugue73¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Noma Noha Akugue

Consensus Traders

Noma Noha Akugue 69%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$200.36

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 73.5¢

-8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNoma Noha Akugue at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Danka Kovinic27%

Noma Noha Akugue74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Noma Noha Akugue9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,309

Combined PnL-$261.34

Danka Kovinic4 traders

Total Value$295.96

Total Shares1,401

Combined PnL+$60.98

Noma Noha Akugue — 69%Danka Kovinic — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IL Illiasca	Noma Noha Akugueavg 78.3¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$205.95	65% 240-130 (370)
1L 1lovejump	Noma Noha Akugueavg 84.3¢	$478.64	$386.62	-$37.94	53% 569-512 (1081)
TH thestingsnake	Noma Noha Akugueavg 83.9¢	$282.96	$281.6	-$1.35	60% 3883-2640 (6523)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Danka Kovinicavg 18¢	$174.06	$179.1	+$5.04	59% 44235-30607 (74842)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Danka Kovinicavg 14¢	$46.62	$89.91	+$43.29	52% 13465-12320 (25785)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 85¢	$42.5	$36.5	-$6	58% 40367-29157 (69524)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 86¢	$42.99	$36.49	-$6.5	49% 18384-18810 (37194)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Danka Kovinicavg 13¢	$11.7	$24.3	+$12.6	54% 16729-14037 (30766)
EF efntrick<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 81.8¢	$24.55	$22.05	-$2.5	48% 3603-3858 (7461)
0xheavy888<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 85¢	$5.67	$4.87	-$0.8	56% 6835-5475 (12310)
tradecraft<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.7	-$0.1	52% 5807-5432 (11239)
RN1CTR<$100	Danka Kovinicavg 26¢	$2.6	$2.65	+$0.05	54% 55310-47345 (102655)
HRTrading<$100	Noma Noha Akugueavg 83¢	$1.66	$1.46	-$0.2	54% 2548-2182 (4730)

Illiasca

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$1,838.23

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$205.95

Record

65%

240-130 (370)

1lovejump

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$478.64

Value

$386.62

PnL

-$37.94

Record

53%

569-512 (1081)

thestingsnake

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$282.96

Value

$281.6

PnL

-$1.35

Record

60%

3883-2640 (6523)

UpTheBluesCTR

Danka Kovinic

Invested

$174.06

Value

$179.1

PnL

+$5.04

Record

59%

44235-30607 (74842)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Danka Kovinic

Invested

$46.62

Value

$89.91

PnL

+$43.29

Record

52%

13465-12320 (25785)

VeryLucky888<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$42.5

Value

$36.5

PnL

-$6

Record

58%

40367-29157 (69524)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$42.99

Value

$36.49

PnL

-$6.5

Record

49%

18384-18810 (37194)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Danka Kovinic

Invested

$11.7

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$12.6

Record

54%

16729-14037 (30766)

efntrick<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$24.55

Value

$22.05

PnL

-$2.5

Record

48%

3603-3858 (7461)

0xheavy888<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$5.67

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0.8

Record

56%

6835-5475 (12310)

tradecraft<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

52%

5807-5432 (11239)

RN1CTR<$100

Danka Kovinic

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

55310-47345 (102655)

HRTrading<$100

Noma Noha Akugue

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

2548-2182 (4730)

Research grade

NeutralNoma Noha Akugue at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Noma Noha Akugue

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Noma Noha Akugue wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.