Courmayeur: Yelyzaveta Kotliar vs Erika Andreeva

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Erika Andreeva (64%) · Erika Andreeva at 74¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yelyzaveta Kotliar27¢Erika Andreeva73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Erika Andreeva

Consensus Traders

Erika Andreeva 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

$573.29

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 73.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralErika Andreeva at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Erika Andreeva

9 of 14 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yelyzaveta Kotliar27%

Erika Andreeva74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Erika Andreeva9 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares9,065

Combined PnL+$317.94

Yelyzaveta Kotliar5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares16,220

Combined PnL+$255.35

Erika Andreeva — 64%Yelyzaveta Kotliar — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Erika Andreevaavg 72.2¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$73.17	54% 55709-47794 (103503)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Erika Andreevaavg 71.5¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$142.28	52% 13549-12397 (25946)
IV Ivan948CTR	Yelyzaveta Kotliaravg 33.1¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$4.1	44% 52-67 (119)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Yelyzaveta Kotliaravg 21.2¢	$982	$1.2K	+$247.14	54% 16861-14141 (31002)
0X 0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR	Yelyzaveta Kotliaravg 20.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.71	50% 95-95 (190)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Erika Andreevaavg 81.6¢	$831.62	$889.26	+$57.64	59% 44601-31003 (75604)
└ Erika Andreeva leg	Erika Andreevaavg 81.6¢	$564.25	$508.21	-$56.04
└ Yelyzaveta Kotliar leg	Yelyzaveta Kotliaravg 18.6¢	$267.37	$381.06	+$113.69
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Erika Andreevaavg 87.1¢	$923.95	$691.91	-$37.51	53% 620-544 (1164)
└ Erika Andreeva leg	Erika Andreevaavg 87.1¢	$621.61	$524.66	-$100.01
└ Yelyzaveta Kotliar leg	Yelyzaveta Kotliaravg 16.7¢	$105.38	$167.25	+$62.5
TH thestingsnake	Erika Andreevaavg 77.6¢	$487.76	$240.56	+$110.15	60% 3960-2663 (6623)
OM omnibus-076daa	Erika Andreevaavg 74¢	$140.22	$139.27	-$0.95	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
0xheavy888	Erika Andreevaavg 82¢	$131.19	$131.19	-$0	56% 6908-5524 (12432)
EF efntrick<$100	Erika Andreevaavg 80¢	$68.92	$68.63	-$0.29	48% 3650-3913 (7563)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yelyzaveta Kotliaravg 17¢	$68.27	$65.34	+$2.57	58% 40747-29469 (70216)
poshposh<$100	Erika Andreevaavg 67.2¢	$71.48	$63.34	-$8.15	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
PA pauleta23<$100	Erika Andreevaavg 82.6¢	$37.65	$39.2	+$1.55	67% 23102-11503 (34605)
HRTrading<$100	Erika Andreevaavg 79¢	$26.86	$27.03	+$0.17	53% 3042-2707 (5749)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yelyzaveta Kotliaravg 18¢	$7.42	$8.45	+$1.03	52% 5870-5504 (11374)

RN1

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$3,914.57

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$73.17

Record

54%

55709-47794 (103503)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$2,129.72

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$142.28

Record

52%

13549-12397 (25946)

Ivan948CTR

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Invested

$1,921.3

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$4.1

Record

44%

52-67 (119)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Invested

$982

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$247.14

Record

54%

16861-14141 (31002)

0x61A8D4b326218a2Fd2AbD32b0670b16bA2F41Ad4-1785951411525CTR

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Invested

$1,127.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$8.71

Record

50%

95-95 (190)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$831.62

Value

$889.26

PnL

+$57.64

Record

59%

44601-31003 (75604)

Both legs:

Erika Andreeva$564.2581.6¢-$56.04

Yelyzaveta Kotliar$267.3718.6¢+$113.69

1lovejumpARB<$100

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$923.95

Value

$691.91

PnL

-$37.51

Record

53%

620-544 (1164)

Both legs:

Erika Andreeva$621.6187.1¢-$100.01

Yelyzaveta Kotliar$105.3816.7¢+$62.5

thestingsnake

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$487.76

Value

$240.56

PnL

+$110.15

Record

60%

3960-2663 (6623)

omnibus-076daa

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$140.22

Value

$139.27

PnL

-$0.95

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

0xheavy888

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$131.19

Value

$131.19

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

6908-5524 (12432)

efntrick<$100

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$68.92

Value

$68.63

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

3650-3913 (7563)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Invested

$68.27

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$2.57

Record

58%

40747-29469 (70216)

poshposh<$100

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$71.48

Value

$63.34

PnL

-$8.15

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

pauleta23<$100

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$37.65

Value

$39.2

PnL

+$1.55

Record

67%

23102-11503 (34605)

HRTrading<$100

Erika Andreeva

Invested

$26.86

Value

$27.03

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

3042-2707 (5749)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yelyzaveta Kotliar

Invested

$7.42

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$1.03

Record

52%

5870-5504 (11374)

Research grade

NeutralErika Andreeva at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Erika Andreeva

9 of 14 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Erika Andreeva wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.